Match Analysis: Estoril vs CF Estrela – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-11
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril, Portugal
Game Overview
Estoril hosts Estrela Amadora in the 2025-26 Primeira Liga opener, with Estoril favored due to stronger recent form and dominant past H2H results.
Key Factors to Consider
- Estoril finished last season strong and has won their last two encounters against Estrela decisively (4-0). They showed a solid mixed record in final pre-season matches. Estrela, conversely, struggled with form and offensive output, losing 4 out of 5 recent matches and scoring sparsely away last season.
- Estoril dominated recent encounters, including a 4-0 win in the last meeting, indicating a psychological and tactical edge over Estrela Amadora.
- No critical injury data reported; key players appear available for Estoril. No significant absences reported for Estrela.
- The match is at Estoril's home ground, which has been a fortress for them and favors the home team advantage. No notable external disruptions or conditions.
- Estoril seeks to continue their momentum into the new season, while Estrela aims to recover confidence after poor recent form and needs to improve their away struggles.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Estoril -115, Draw 250, Estrela 310 | Estoril | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Estoril -0.5 -115, Estrela +50 -105 | Estoril -0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -125, Under 2.25 105 | Under 2.25 | β β β β β 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Estoril 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Estoril to win; Spread -0.5 for Estoril; Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0