Match Analysis: Atletico Mineiro vs Mirassol – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
Game Overview
Atletico Mineiro faces Mirassol in a Brasileirão Serie A match at Arena MRV. Atletico Mineiro is struggling with a winless streak and key injuries but has scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches. Mirassol is in better league form, ranking 4th, while Atletico is 15th. Both teams have a draw in their only previous head-to-head meeting this season with a 2-2 scoreline.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atletico Mineiro hasn't won in 7 matches and hasn't kept a clean sheet in 7 games but managed 12 goals in their last 5 matches. Mirassol has scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches and has been relatively more consistent, holding a 6-match unbeaten run previously.
- The teams have played only once this season, ending in a 2-2 draw. Historically, there is only one previous result showing no wins for either side but one draw, indicating a fairly balanced rivalry with limited data.
- Atletico Mineiro will miss Cadu, Patrick Silva, Renzo Saravia, and Tomas Cuello due to injuries. Mirassol is missing Matheus Sales. Atletico’s more extensive injury list may impact their defensive stability and squad depth.
- The match is held at Atletico Mineiro's home ground, Arena MRV, providing home advantage. The current date is three days before the match, without noted external disruptions.
- Mirassol’s higher league standing (4th) provides stronger motivation to maintain or improve position, while Atletico Mineiro, sitting 15th, is eager to break its winless streak and climb away from relegation threats.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro: 132, Mirassol: 220, Draw: 212 | Draw | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Spread | Atletico Mineiro: -0.25, Mirassol: 25 | Atletico Mineiro -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.25, Under: 2.25 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atletico Mineiro 47% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Atletico Mineiro at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Atletico Mineiro’s home advantage but recent poor form and several key injuries, and Mirassol’s better league position and consistent form, the match is expected to be closely contested. A draw or narrow win for Mirassol is predicted, with both teams likely to score.
Predicted Score: 2-2