Match Analysis: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-07
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: EverBank Stadium
Game Overview
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 1 as favorites at home against the Carolina Panthers, both teams coming off poor defensive seasons but with key offseason changes aimed at improvement. Jacksonville is incorporating Heisman winner Travis Hunter and a new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, while Carolina aims to build on a late-season offensive turnaround led by Bryce Young.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Jaguars struggled heavily on defense in 2024 (31st in yards allowed) but have high offensive potential with new schemes and additions. Panthers have a poor overall record (5-15 SU last 20 games) and historically struggle on the road (2-15 last 17 road games), though they finished 4-5 in final 9 games last season with improved QB play.
- Jacksonville defeated Carolina decisively 26-0 two seasons ago at home. Historical trends favor home favorites with new head coaches in Jacksonville, posting 5-0 ATS since 2017.
- No significant injury reports indicate major starters missing for either team for this matchup.
- Home crowd advantage substantial for Jaguars; Panthers' poor travel and road form weigh against them.
- Jacksonville motivated to rebound after a poor 4-13 season and energized by high draft investment. Carolina looks to sustain momentum from late 2024 offensive improvements but faces an historically unfavorable environment.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville -185, Carolina +154 | Jacksonville Jaguars | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Jacksonville -3.5 (-105), Carolina +3.5 (-115) | Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 46.5 -115, Under 46.5 -105 | Under 46.5 | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacksonville Jaguars to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -3.5 spread, and the total points to go under 46.5.
Predicted Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24 – Carolina Panthers 14