Match Analysis: Canelo Álvarez vs Terence Crawford – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 4:00 AM UTC
• Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, United States

Game Overview

Canelo Álvarez defends his undisputed super middleweight titles against Terence Crawford, who moves up two weight divisions for the fight. Both are elite pound-for-pound fighters, making this a high-profile matchup for legacy and championship unification.

Key Factors to Consider

• Canelo holds a record of 63-2-2 with 39 KOs, showing consistent elite performance at super middleweight. Crawford is undefeated at 41-0 with 31 KOs but has limited experience at super middleweight, with most of his career at lighter weights.
• This is their first and only matchup, so there is no direct head-to-head data available.
• No significant recent injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout, both appear in prime condition to compete at their best.
• The fight takes place at a neutral high-profile venue, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, enhancing motivation. Both fighters aim to cement their legacies, increasing motivation. Crawford faces challenges moving up two weight classes.
• Extremely high for both fighters as this bout determines undisputed super middleweight supremacy and cements legacy; Crawford aims to make history across three weight classes, Canelo seeks to defend and maintain supremacy.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Canelo Álvarez -182, Terence Crawford +159	Canelo Álvarez	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	Canelo Álvarez -1.5 rounds -110	Canelo Álvarez by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 10.5 -385, Under 10.5 +306	Under 10.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Canelo Álvarez -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 10.5 164%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 164% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Canelo Álvarez moneyline win

Predicted Score: Canelo Álvarez by 11th round TKO

Match Analysis: Canelo Álvarez vs William Scull – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-03
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

Undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Álvarez defends his titles against undefeated mandatory challenger William Scull. Canelo brings elite counterpunching and championship experience (60-2-2, 39 KOs), while Scull (22-0, 9 KOs) faces his first career-defining test with significant physical advantages in height and reach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Canelo dominates in championship experience (18+ years as pro) and KO power (39 KOs). Scull lacks elite-level competition but maintains perfect record.
• First meeting between fighters
• No reported injuries
• Scull's mandatory challenger status pressures Canelo; Saudi Arabia's Riyadh Season event amplifies global spotlight
• Canelo defends legacy ahead of potential Crawford clash; Scull seeks career-altering upset

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Canelo -5000 | Scull +1200	Canelo Álvarez	★★★★★ 95%
Over/under	Over 9.5 Rounds -125 | Under 9.5 Rounds -105	Over 9.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Canelo Álvarez -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 9.5 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 9.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Canelo by decision (60-54 scorecard equivalent) – superior ring IQ and championship seasoning will overcome Scull's physical advantages

Predicted Score: Unanimous Decision for Canelo (117-111, 118-110, 116-112)

Top EV Parlay for Boxing – May 3, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Brayan Leon vs. Aaron Guerrero Prediction	Brayan Leon	-5000	1325%
Jaime Munguia vs. Bruno Surace Prediction	Jaime Munguia	-900	453%
Canelo Álvarez vs. William Scull Prediction	Over 9.5	-125	30%

Combined Odds: +104 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $40.8