Match Analysis: Jaime Munguia vs Bruno Surace – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-03
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: The Venue, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
Rematch following Surace's shocking 6th-round KO of Munguia (ESPN's 2024 Upset of the Year). Munguia (-2500 favorite in first meeting) seeks redemption after two losses in last three fights, now training with Eddy Reynoso. Surace aims to prove his first win wasn't a fluke.
Key Factors to Consider
- Munguia has 80% KO rate (35/44 wins) vs Surace's 19% (5/26). Surace ranked No.9 after first win; Munguia dropped to No.10. Munguia coming off 10th-round KO of Bazinyan before Surace loss.
- Surace 1-0 (KO6). Key factor: Surace showed unexpected power while Munguia struggled defensively despite flooring Surace in Rd2.
- No reported injuries. Munguia potentially compromised by grueling Canelo fight (UD loss May 2024) before first Surace bout.
- Neutral site (Saudi Arabia) removes home advantage Munguia had in first fight. Co-main event to Canelo-Scull adds pressure.
- Munguia exercising rematch clause immediately shows urgency. Surace motivated to earn Canelo shot ('I want to fight you' – YouTube 5/1/25).
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Surace +550 / Munguia -900 | Munguia moneyline | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 (-115) / Under 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jaime Munguia 453% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Jaime Munguia at 453% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 82.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Munguia by decision (60%) or late KO (30%). Surace's puncher's chance remains (10%) given proven power and Munguia's defensive lapses.
Predicted Score: Munguia via KO/TKO Rd7-9 (60% confidence) or UD12 (25%). 15% chance Surace repeat KO.