Match Analysis: Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-18
- Time: 8:11 PM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Game Overview
The Boston Red Sox (38-37, 4th in AL East) and Seattle Mariners (37-35, 2nd in AL West) face off in a pivotal midweek matinee. The series is tied after Seattle's 8-0 win on Tuesday, snapping Boston's six-game winning streak. Both teams feature strong starting pitching: Garrett Crochet (6-4, 2.24 ERA, 117 Ks) for Boston, Luis Castillo (4-4, 3.29 ERA) for Seattle. Seattle's offense is hot, while Boston's bats have struggled recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boston's pitching is anchored by Crochet, who ranks 8th in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts, but the offense is struggling (2.4 runs per game last 7 games). Seattle's offense is surging—8th in wOBA and 4th in BB% last week—and has momentum after a dominant win.
- Castillo has a strong history against Boston—holding them to a .129/.182/.323 slash line over 31 at-bats. Crochet has a decent record against Seattle's hitters (.234/.345/.426 over 47 at-bats), but Seattle's recent form is superior.
- Boston is without Alex Bregman and recently lost Rafael Devers. Seattle's lineup is healthier and more potent right now.
- T-Mobile Park is pitcher-friendly, and weather is not expected to play a major role for this matchup. Seattle has strong home support (20-18 SU at home).
- Both teams are looking to secure a series win and build momentum before the All-Star break. Seattle is 4-1 SU in their last five games and is motivated to extend their home success.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Boston Red Sox: -120, Seattle Mariners: 102 | Seattle Mariners (lean) | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Spread | Boston Red Sox: 1.5 (152), Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-184) | Seattle +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 6.5 (-120), Under 6.5 (-102) | Under 6.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 6.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Seattle has the edge in offensive momentum and home-field advantage, while Boston's offense is in a slump. Expect a tight, low-scoring game with Seattle having a slight probability advantage to win.
Predicted Score: Seattle Mariners 3, Boston Red Sox 2