Match Analysis: Rodolfo Vieira vs Bo Nickal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

The middleweight bout between Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira at UFC 322 features two high-level grapplers and finishers with contrasting styles and recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bo Nickal holds a 7-1 record, showing a strong striking accuracy (59%) and solid defense (absorbing 2.11 significant strikes per minute). Rodolfo Vieira is 11-3 with an aggressive style focusing on submissions, landing more significant strikes per minute (3.77) but absorbing more (4.12). Nickal's average fight time is shorter (5:08) versus Vieira's longer bouts (9:43).
• No prior head-to-head fights between Nickal and Vieira have occurred, making this a stylistic matchup between Nickal's striking and wrestling versus Vieira's jiu-jitsu and submission prowess.
• No reported injuries to either fighter entering this bout, indicating both are at full strength.
• The fight takes place in Nickal's home country (USA) in a major venue adding potential crowd support. Vieira is slightly older (36 vs. 29) which may affect endurance and recovery.
• Nickal is coming off a recent TKO loss but motivated to rebound against a submission specialist, while Vieira seeks validation as a top middleweight grappler stepping into the UFC spotlight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bo Nickal -205, Rodolfo Vieira +170	Bo Nickal	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Bo Nickal -3.5 -105, Rodolfo Vieira +3.5 -125	Bo Nickal -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -166, Under 2.5 +130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rodolfo Vieira -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bo Nickal to win by decision

Predicted Score: Bo Nickal wins by unanimous decision without significant damage

Match Analysis: Reinier de Ridder vs Bo Nickal – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-04
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: Des Moines

Game Overview

Middleweight co-main event between undefeated prospect Bo Nickal and two-division ONE Championship veteran Reinier de Ridder. De Ridder aims to leverage his elite submission skills (13 career submission wins) against Nickal's elite wrestling pedigree. Both fighters are undefeated in the UFC, with de Ridder coming off two first-round submissions of Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland.

Key Factors to Consider

• De Ridder: 19-0 record (13 subs), UFC wins via RNC and D'Arce choke. Nickal: 5-0 record (4 subs), UFC wins via D'Arce and kimura.
• First meeting. Nickal's NCAA D1 wrestling pedigree vs de Ridder's BJJ black belt mastery.
• No reported injuries. De Ridder mentioned weight management post-fight but not an active concern.
• Significant fan anticipation around Nickal ('The Great American Hope') counterbalanced by de Ridder's championship experience in major organizations.
• De Ridder seeks top-5 ranking and title shot path with win. Nickal aims to validate hyped prospect status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nickal -340 / de Ridder +270	Nickal moneyline	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Nickal -3.5 (-190) / de Ridder +3.5 (+140)	Nickal covers -3.5 spread	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-105) / Under 2.5 (-125)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Bo Nickal 152%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bo Nickal at 152% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 56.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Nickal by decision (55%) or de Ridder by submission (45%). High probability of grappling-heavy bout with Nickal's wrestling likely controlling early rounds, but de Ridder's submission threat persists throughout.

Predicted Score: No score prediction (MMA). Most likely outcome: Nickal by 3rd-round ground-and-pound TKO (30% probability) or de Ridder by 2nd-round submission (25% probability).

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – May 3, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrovic Prediction	Ivana Petrovic	-220	85%
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal Prediction	Reinier de Ridder	270	18%
Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev Prediction	Over 2.5	-115	18%

Combined Odds: +906 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $201.23