Match Analysis: Baylor Bears vs Kansas State Wildcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: October 4, 2025
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: McLane Stadium
Game Overview
A Big 12 matchup between Baylor Bears (3-2, 1-1) and Kansas State Wildcats (2-3, 1-1), with Baylor favored due to its strong passing offense but facing a solid Kansas State defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kansas State's solid defense has been limiting opponents to 181 passing yards per game, while Baylor relies heavily on its passing game. Kansas State's offense showed improvement last week.
- No recent head-to-head data indicates a significant advantage, but Baylor's reliance on passing could be challenged by Kansas State's defense.
- No significant injury reports available that would impact the outcome.
- Weather conditions and crowd support could favor Baylor, but sharp money is backing Kansas State.
- Both teams are motivated as they are both 1-1 in league play, but Kansas State's recent win could boost their confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -230 (Baylor), 190 (Kansas State) | Kansas State | β β β ββ 58% |
Spread | -6.5 -112 (Baylor), 6.5 -108 (Kansas State) | Kansas State +6.5 | β β β β β 74% |
Over/under | 61.5 -110 (Over), 61.5 -110 (Under) | Under 61.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Baylor Bears 60% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 61.5 -5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Baylor Bears at 60% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the factors, taking Kansas State +6.5 offers the best value due to their defensive strength and recent offensive improvement.
Predicted Score: Baylor 24, Kansas State 23