Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-18
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, Brazil
Game Overview
The Brasileirão Série A match between Mirassol and Cruzeiro features two competitive sides positioned 6th and 2nd respectively. Mirassol has a strong home presence and has shown resilience with a mix of wins and draws recently, while Cruzeiro is in good form with solid defense and scoring ability. Their last encounter this season ended with Cruzeiro as winners, highlighting a rivalry with close competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has won 4 and lost 1 in their last 5 matches with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 2.4 goals conceded per match. Cruzeiro has remained unbeaten in their last 5, winning 2 and drawing 3 with a 1.0 goal average for and against, demonstrating a stronger defensive record and slightly more consistent attacking output.
- The teams have played 1 match this season, with Cruzeiro winning 1-0 and no draws recorded. Historically, this fixture has been balanced but with Serie A this season favoring Cruzeiro’s form and position in the league.
- No explicit current injury information available from recent data. Assumption based on recent lineups suggests both teams can field strong squads.
- The match is at Mirassol’s home ground, which can provide a home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are not reported as adverse.
- Cruzeiro holds a higher league position (2nd) and is motivated to secure points to maintain a promotion or championship bid. Mirassol, placed 6th, will be motivated to upset a top side at home and improve their standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro: 130, Mirassol: 205, Draw: 210 | Cruzeiro win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Cruzeiro: -0.25, Mirassol: 25, Cruzeiro_odds: 108, Mirassol_odds: -128 | Cruzeiro -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over_2: -140, Under_2: 115 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro 4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Cruzeiro’s stronger defensive record, better recent form, and betting odds favoring them, the prediction leans towards a narrow Cruzeiro victory or a draw, but Mirassol’s home performance suggests a competitive match likely decided by a one-goal margin.
Predicted Score: Mirassol 0 – 1 Cruzeiro