Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-06
- Time: 10:11 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field for the second game in this series. The previous day, the Cardinals defeated the Cubs 8-6 in a close, competitive game. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, with the Cardinals scoring 8 and the Cubs 6. Pitching matchups are key, with Michael Boyd starting for the Cubs (8-3, 2.65 ERA) and E. Fedde for the Cardinals (3-8, 4.56 ERA). The Cubs have home advantage and recent momentum after winning two straight before July 5, but the Cardinals bounced back with a win yesterday.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs have a strong record and solid pitching from Boyd, who has an impressive 2.65 ERA over 8 wins. The Cardinals have been inconsistent but showed resilience with a comeback win on July 5. Cubs offense has been capable, scoring 9 hits in the last game, but the Cardinals' pitching staff, led by Steven Matz, has also been effective recently.
- The recent game on July 5 ended 8-6 in favor of the Cardinals at Wrigley Field. Overall head-to-head this season favors a competitive edge with high scoring games, suggesting a close matchup. Both teams have traded wins in this series.
- No major injury reports available from the data; both teams appear to field their strong lineups with probable starters healthy.
- Home field advantage decisively favors the Cubs. Weather and other external factors are not mentioned but should be typical for early July in Chicago, favoring no disruptions.
- Both teams are motivated mid-season to secure playoff positioning. The Cubs may have a slight edge playing at home and looking to avenge the prior day's loss.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -200, St. Louis Cardinals: 168 | Chicago Cubs to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (102), St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-122) | Chicago Cubs -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5: -112, Under 7.5: -108 | Over 7.5 runs | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the stronger pitching and home field advantage, the Chicago Cubs are favored to win but the game will likely be close and moderately high scoring.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 5 – St. Louis Cardinals 3