Top EV Parlay for Baseball – August 13, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction	Over 9.5	100	20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins Prediction	Under 7.5	100	20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Prediction	Over 9	100	16%

Combined Odds: +700 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $160

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction	Philadelphia Phillies Win	-127	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction	St. Louis Cardinals Win	-205	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction	Milwaukee Brewers Win	-215	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +290

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $77.92

Match Analysis: Peñarol Montevideo vs Racing Club – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-13
• Time: 12:30 AM UTC
• Location: Estadio Campeon del Siglo, Montevideo, Uruguay

Game Overview

This Copa Libertadores round of 16 match features Peñarol Montevideo hosting Racing Club Avellaneda. Peñarol boasts strong home form and defensive solidity, while Racing arrives with good away momentum and attacking potency. The game is likely to be carefully contested with tactical discipline and moments of individual skill.

Key Factors to Consider

• Peñarol holds a superior recent win rate (~75.8%) compared to Racing (~66.6%). Racing has won five of their last six away matches with an average of 2.4 goals per game recently, showing strong offensive ability. Peñarol concedes few goals at home, maintaining only 3 goals allowed in last six Libertadores matches.
• Previous matchups indicate a tight competition with Peñarol slightly favored. Probabilities from various sources give Peñarol around 39-43% win chance, Racing around 33-39%, and draws roughly 19-31%.
• No critical injury news reported for either team; lineups expected near full strength.
• Home advantage at Estadio Campeon del Siglo with energetic crowd support favors Peñarol. Weather and pitch conditions typical and unlikely to pose issues.
• Both teams highly motivated; Peñarol for home advantage to take a lead in the tie, Racing aiming to maintain their excellent away form and control the tie early.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Peñarol 170, Racing 180, Draw 210	Peñarol Montevideo	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Peñarol 0 -120, Racing 0 -110	Peñarol Montevideo +0	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2 -125, Under 2 -105	Over 2 goals	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Peñarol Montevideo 13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Peñarol Montevideo at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Peñarol Montevideo to win on moneyline, with a close, high-tempo match featuring goals from both sides but ultimately home grit prevailing.

Predicted Score: 2-1

Match Analysis: Atlético Nacional S.A vs Sao Paulo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-13
• Time: 12:30 AM UTC
• Location: Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín

Game Overview

Atlético Nacional hosts Sao Paulo in a key Copa Libertadores group stage match. Both sides have solid South American pedigree, but Atlético Nacional enjoys home advantage in Medellín's high altitude, which typically favors their energetic, physical style.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atlético Nacional has shown stronger recent form with consistent home performances and resilience in Copa Libertadores. Sao Paulo comes with mixed results and less stability.
• Historically, these teams have contested only a few Copa Libertadores matches, with Atlético Nacional slightly favored at home due to altitude and familiarity.
• No major injury concerns reported for either side; squads appear near full strength.
• Altitude advantage (Medellín ~1,500m) likely plays a significant role, favoring Atlético Nacional’s stamina and pace. Travel fatigue may affect Sao Paulo.
• Atlético Nacional is motivated to secure home points to advance from the group stage, while Sao Paulo looks to gain ground away but faces tougher conditions.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +123, away: +265, draw: +215	Home Win (Atlético Nacional S.A)	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	home_-0.5: -130, away_+50: +110	Home -0.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	over_1.5: -186, under_1.5: +155	Under 1.5 goals	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Atlético Nacional S.A 23%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 53%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 53% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Atlético Nacional S.A to win on the moneyline, covering at least a -0.5 spread, with the match expected to stay under 2 total goals.

Predicted Score: 1-0

Match Analysis: Radley Da Silva vs George Mangos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Florida, USA

Game Overview

Radley Da Silva and George Mangos face off in a closely matched men's featherweight bout at Dana White's Contender Series. Both fighters have strong records with Da Silva at 7-1-0 and Mangos undefeated at 7-0-0. Da Silva carries a slight experience edge with an additional loss yet more fights, whereas Mangos is younger and undefeated. Physical stats are similar except Daim Silva weighs in heavier at 145 lbs versus Mangos’ 125 lbs, which might be a data anomaly.

Key Factors to Consider

• Radley Da Silva’s recent form shows good strike volume and ground control but has one loss indicating some vulnerability. George Mangos is undefeated, showing consistent performance and steady improvements throughout his 7 fight career.
• No prior head-to-head fights recorded between Da Silva and Mangos, making this a fresh matchup with unpredictability.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter, both appear fully fit for the contest.
• Fight takes place at Dana White’s Contender Series in Florida, which is a high-stakes environment encouraging maximal performance to secure UFC contracts.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to impress on this platform to secure UFC contracts, slightly favoring Mangos who is younger and undefeated, carrying momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	George Mangos: -130, Radley Da Silva: +100	George Mangos	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	George Mangos -1.5: -120, Radley Da Silva +1.5: 100	George Mangos -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: 110, Under 1.5 rounds: -130	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	George Mangos -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: George Mangos at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

George Mangos to win on the moneyline

Predicted Score: George Mangos wins by TKO/Decision in Round 2

Match Analysis: Jimmy Drago vs Ty Miller – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

Welterweight bout between seasoned finisher Jimmy Drago and undefeated rising talent Ty Miller. Drago brings solid wrestling and powerful boxing with finishing capability, whereas Miller offers youth, speed, power, and an undefeated record with growing potential.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jimmy Drago has a 7-2-0 record with experience and finishing power, showing good wrestling and clinch work. Ty Miller is undefeated at 5-0-0 with one no contest, younger and fast, with powerful hands and rising skill level.
• No recorded previous head-to-head matchup between the fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the bout.
• Fight takes place at Dana White's Contender Series in Las Vegas, favoring neither fighter significantly; both fight under similar conditions and motivation to make UFC roster.
• Ty Miller is highly motivated as an undefeated rising prospect looking to cement his status. Jimmy Drago is motivated to maintain his experience edge and prove his finishing ability against a young contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jimmy Drago: +155, Ty Miller: -185	Ty Miller	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Ty Miller -1.5: -120, Jimmy Drago +1.5: +100	Ty Miller -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ty Miller -14%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ty Miller at -14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ty Miller to win by decision

Predicted Score: Ty Miller wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Ilian Bouafia vs Neemias Santana – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Undisclosed Venue, Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

The matchup features Ilian Bouafia, a sharp and technically improving striker known for his powerful straight left, versus Neemias Santana, a slick kickboxer with solid low kicks and good power but a defensive tendency of keeping his hands low. Both fighters are strong strikers with potential UFC futures.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bouafia has shown more noticeable improvement recently and is considered more technical; Santana offers strong endurance and power but risks exposure with defensive gaps.
• No known previous head-to-head matchups between Bouafia and Santana; this will be their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter heading into the bout.
• Fight takes place on Dana White's Contender Series platform, which may increase motivation especially for Bouafia, who is viewed as highly technical and eager to impress.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure UFC contracts, but Bouafia's noted technical improvements suggest higher preparation and mental readiness.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ilian Bouafia: -210, Neemias Santana: 170	Ilian Bouafia	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Bouafia -1.5 rounds: -150, Santana +1.5 rounds: 130	Bouafia -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: 120, Under 2.5 rounds: -140	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ilian Bouafia -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ilian Bouafia at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ilian Bouafia to win by decision

Predicted Score: Bouafia wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Murtaza Talha vs Baysangur Susurkaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-13
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Contender Series 2025 Venue (Exact location not specified)

Game Overview

Murtaza Talha (7-1) faces undefeated Baysangur Susurkaev (8-0) on short notice at middleweight in DWCS 2025. Talha is the more experienced fighter with strong wrestling and aggressive ground-and-pound but has had an ACL injury and loss in CS before. Susurkaev is a fast-finishing knockout artist, unbeaten, taking the fight on short notice. Both fighters have a combined 12 first-round finishes, with contrasting styles presenting an intriguing matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Talha has a 7-1 record with 7 finishes (4 KOs, 3 subs) but recently struggled with an ACL injury and contested a higher weight class previously. Susurkaev is 8-0 with 7 KOs, showing explosive power and pace. Both fighters have heavy finishes; Talha never goes to decision, while Susurkaev has mostly KO wins and one decision.
• No previous fights between Talha and Susurkaev. Both bring early finish styles and aggressive approaches, making outcomes highly dependent on fight start conditions and preparation.
• Talha is returning from ACL surgery within the last year and had a layoff before his last CS fight. Susurkaev is taking this bout on short notice, which may impact conditioning.
• Susurkaev stepping in on short notice might put him at a conditioning disadvantage but could be highly motivated to keep his undefeated streak. Talha has home advantage being prepared for this event and fighting at closer to his natural weight.
• Talha wants to redeem himself after a previous CS loss and prove durability post-injury. Susurkaev is motivated to maintain 8-0 undefeated record and capitalize on an opportunity in DWCS for UFC entry.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev: -275, Murtaza Talha: 215	Away (Baysangur Susurkaev)	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Susurkaev -1.5: -110, Talha +1.5: -110	Susurkaev -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -120, Under 1.5 rounds: 100	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Baysangur Susurkaev -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Baysangur Susurkaev at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Baysangur Susurkaev to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Baysangur Susurkaev wins by KO/TKO in Round 1