Match Analysis: Rafael do Nascimento vs Arnold Jimenez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-26
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Tachi Palace Casino Resort
Game Overview
A bantamweight bout between Rafael do Nascimento (10-3) and Arnold Jimenez (12-3) at LFA 213. Both fighters have solid records with Jimenez holding a slight edge in recent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rafael do Nascimento is coming off a strong showing, maintaining a 10-3 record, focusing on striking and grappling with knockout power. Arnold Jimenez is 12-3 with solid wins but with slightly less knockout power and less recent finishes.
- No recorded previous head-to-head matchup between the two fighters, making this a fresh tactical contest.
- No reported injuries or withdrawals for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight takes place at Tachi Palace, a venue with which do Nascimento has had notable success, potentially providing a slight home advantage.
- Both fighters are motivated to ascend the LFA bantamweight rankings; do Nascimento’s recent knockout highlight and Jimenez’s 12 wins suggest strong desire from both.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafael do Nascimento -330, Arnold Jimenez +270 | Rafael do Nascimento | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Unavailable exact numerical spread odds, implied line approximately -1.5 rounds favoring do Nascimento | Rafael do Nascimento -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -115, Under 2.5 rounds -115 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafael do Nascimento -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Rafael do Nascimento to win. Spread: Rafael do Nascimento -1.5 rounds. Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Rafael do Nascimento wins via TKO in round 2