Match Analysis: Cody Gibson vs Aori Qileng – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Game Overview
The UFC Bantamweight bout between Cody Gibson and Aori Qileng is set for October 18, 2025, as part of UFC Fight Night at Rogers Arena. Both fighters bring contrasting styles: Gibson is a well-rounded veteran with UFC experience aiming to bounce back after recent setbacks, while Aori Qileng is a striker with a mixed record and weaknesses in grappling, returning from a long layoff of over a year. The fight will test Gibson's grappling and experience against Aori's striking and resilience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cody Gibson has shown durability and a well-rounded skill set throughout his UFC tenure but has faced recent tough losses including a second-round submission. Aori Qileng holds a record of 25-12-0 (1 NC) with notable striking output but has struggled defensively in grappling exchanges, losing decisively in his last UFC appearance by unanimous decision. Gibson's experience inside the cage and grappling advantage could be pivotal.
- This is the first recorded matchup between Cody Gibson and Aori Qileng, so no direct head-to-head comparison exists.
- No publicly disclosed injuries have been reported for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight takes place in Vancouver, Canada, somewhat neutral ground but geographically closer and possibly more favorable fan support for Gibson, who fights often in North America. Aori Qileng's long layoff of approximately 13 months may impact his fight rhythm and conditioning.
- Cody Gibson is motivated to reestablish his position in the bantamweight division after suffering a recent loss, combining urgency with experience. Aori Qileng seeks to rebound and prove his readiness after a year away from Octagon competition, which could add desperation or fresh energy.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aori Qileng: +150, Cody Gibson: -180 | Cody Gibson | ★★★★☆ 76% |
| Spread | Aori Qileng: 3.5 -155, Cody Gibson: -3.5 115 | Cody Gibson to win by more than 3.5 points (dominant performance) | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -188, Under: 2.5 145 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cody Gibson -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 52% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 52% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cody Gibson is favored to win due to his superior grappling, UFC experience, and recent competitive form. Aori Qileng's striking poses a threat, but his vulnerability in wrestling and lack of recent fight activity lower his chances.
Predicted Score: Cody Gibson wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3