Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs Utah Valley Wolverines – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center
Game Overview
Utah Valley Wolverines (2-1) travel to face Fresno State Bulldogs (2-2) in a Mountain West/WAC matchup. Utah Valley enters as the betting favorite with strong recent form, while Fresno State seeks to stabilize after early-season struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah Valley is 15-0 SU in its last 15 games when playing as the favorite, demonstrating exceptional execution in favored positions. Fresno State is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games against opponents in similar statistical positions, suggesting structural weaknesses against quality competition. Utah Valley holds a 2-1 record with superior win probability (59%) according to advanced models.
- Limited recent head-to-head data available, but Utah Valley's dominant record as a favorite suggests consistent ability to handle lesser competition and maintain leads against inferior opponents.
- No significant injury information reported in available sources.
- Game played at Fresno State's home venue (Save Mart Center), providing home-court advantage offset by Utah Valley's superior form and consistency as a favorite. The late 10:00 PM ET start time may favor the home team with travel fatigue considerations for Utah Valley.
- Utah Valley seeks to maintain undefeated status as a favorite and extend winning streak. Fresno State searching for momentum after disappointing 2-2 start and recent poor performance against comparable opponents.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Valley -155 / Fresno State +125 | Utah Valley Wolverines | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Utah Valley -2.5 -118 / Fresno State +2.5 -102 | Utah Valley -2.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5 -110 / Under 154.5 -110 | Under 154.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Valley Wolverines 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 -1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Utah Valley Wolverines at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah Valley Wolverines will defeat Fresno State Bulldogs. The combination of Utah Valley's perfect 15-0 record as a favorite, superior win probability modeling (59%), and Fresno State's poor historical performance (3-17) against similar-level opponents creates a compelling case for an away victory despite home-court disadvantage.
Predicted Score: Utah Valley 76, Fresno State 71