Match Analysis: Arouca vs Moreirense FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Game Overview
Arouca hosts Moreirense FC in a Portugal Primeira Liga matchup featuring two teams with mixed recent performances and a closely contested head-to-head record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are in poor recent form; Arouca has a weak home record with only 1 home win and several draws and losses, while Moreirense has managed 1 win in their last 4 away games, indicating inconsistent form.
- Moreirense leads the recent head-to-head with 9 wins compared to Arouca's 7 in their past 18 meetings, but the margin is narrow and includes many draws, showing a fairly balanced rivalry.
- No specific injury updates available; assume key players are generally available, but last-minute check is recommended.
- The game is at Arouca’s home stadium which typically provides advantage, but recent home form undermines this; no unusual external factors noted.
- Both sides need points to improve their league positions, but Moreirense's slightly better away form and past success may provide marginal psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arouca: +155, Moreirense FC: +176, Draw: +225 | Moreirense FC | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Arouca: 0 -120, Moreirense FC: 0 +100 | Moreirense FC +0 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25: -115, Under 2.25: -105 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Moreirense FC 27% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 21% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Moreirense FC at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Moreirense FC to win
Predicted Score: 0-1