Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
Game Overview
Boise State Broncos (6-2) host Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3) in a Mountain West Conference matchup with Boise State as heavy favorites by 17.5 points. Recent form shows Boise State dominant with a 24-3 win in their last game, while Fresno State is coming off a 23-0 loss.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boise State has a strong 6-2 record with defensive dominance, allowing only 3 points in their last game. Fresno State is 5-3 but struggling offensively, scoring zero in their last contest.
- The teams last met on November 4, 2023, with Fresno State winning 37-30 at home. However, Boise Stateβs home advantage and recent improved form favor them this time.
- No significant injuries reported for either team, maintaining full strengths.
- Game location at Boise Stateβs home field, Albertsons Stadium, provides a substantial home-field advantage. The weather conditions are not expected to negatively impact performance.
- Boise State aims to strengthen their conference standing with a dominant home win. Fresno State looks to bounce back from a shutout loss, but motivation likely lower given current form and disparity in team performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -1000, away: +660 | Boise State Broncos | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | home: -110, away: -110 | Boise State Broncos -17.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Over 50.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 50.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 50.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boise State to win outright, cover the 17.5-point spread, and the total points to go over 50.5, reflecting Boise Stateβs offensive strength and Fresno Stateβs defensive lapses.
Predicted Score: Boise State Broncos 38, Fresno State Bulldogs 14