Match Analysis: AC Milan vs Fiorentina – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Game Overview
AC Milan and Fiorentina face off in Serie A with Milan slightly favored at home. Both teams have a competitive history with Milan having a marginal edge in head-to-head wins.
Key Factors to Consider
- AC Milan has won 4 of the last 5 encounters against Fiorentina, averaging 1.6 goals scored and conceding 1.2. Fiorentinaβs recent form is poor this season with no wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. Milanβs attack is weakened by key injuries but retains home advantage.
- Historically, Milan leads with 21 wins to Fiorentinaβs 12 across 42 matches since 2004, with 10 draws. Their recent matches tend to be competitive with 2-2 being a recent scoreline.
- AC Milan is missing key players including Christian Pulisic (month-long hamstring injury), Adrien Rabiot, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Ardon Jashari. Fiorentina are missing Christian KouamΓ©, Moise Kean, and Tariq Lamptey, impacting their offensive options significantly.
- Match played at Milanβs home stadium provides a strong home-field advantage. No significant external disruptions reported.
- AC Milan aims to improve their standing and secure Champions League qualification hopes, providing strong motivation. Fiorentinaβs poor form suggests low morale but they may look to stop the rot.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AC Milan: -180, Fiorentina: 533, Draw: 328 | AC Milan | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | AC Milan -1: -110, Fiorentina +1: -110 | AC Milan -1 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AC Milan -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AC Milan to win on the moneyline, covering the -1 spread, with under 2.5 goals in total.
Predicted Score: 1-0