Match Analysis: Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 7:07 PM UTC
- Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario
Game Overview
The Toronto Blue Jays, leading the AL East and playing at home, face the Baltimore Orioles who have had a struggling season. Max Scherzer starts for Toronto against Tomoyuki Sugano for Baltimore. The Blue Jays are favorites on the moneyline and run line, with an 8.5 total runs line for the contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toronto Blue Jays hold an 85-62 record and are on a stronger recent run compared to the Orioles who stand at 69-78. Blue Jays' offense remains productive led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., while Baltimoreβs offense has been inconsistent and the bullpen fragile.
- Blue Jays have won 5 of their last 7 matchups against the Orioles, including recent convincing wins. Sugano has struggled against Toronto in his career with a 5.19 ERA, while Scherzer has had success against Baltimore in the past.
- No major injuries reported that affect starting lineups significantly. Both teams appear to have key players available.
- Game is at Rogers Centre, a hitter-friendly environment enhancing run-scoring potential. Weather is not expected to impact play significantly.
- Toronto is aiming to solidify their AL East lead and maintain momentum as postseason approaches. Baltimore has less playoff motivation with a losing record and is playing for pride and developing younger talent.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays -168 / Baltimore Orioles +152 | Toronto Blue Jays | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+123) / Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-143) | Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 (-120) / Under 8.5 (100) | Over 8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toronto Blue Jays 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toronto Blue Jays to win on the moneyline with confidence, covering the -1.5 run line as well in a moderately high scoring game overall.
Predicted Score: Toronto Blue Jays 6 – 3 Baltimore Orioles