Match Analysis: Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: loanDepot park, Miami, Florida
Game Overview
The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals with Miami as a slight favorite on the moneyline and run line, starting with Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore as pitchers. The matchup favors the Marlins given home advantage, better pitching, and recent form discrepancies.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Marlins hold a 67-79 season record and have shown stronger recent results against the Nationals, who are 60-85. Miami's pitching and hitting have been more consistent, while Washington has struggled with a 5.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over this season.
- In their recent series, Miami won decisively including an 11-9 and 11-4 victory. Washington has had difficulty containing Miami's offense and has been outperformed in pitching matchups against them.
- No significant injuries reported that would drastically impact either starting pitcher or major offensive contributors for this game.
- Playing at loanDepot park provides Miami with clear home field advantage. Weather conditions are typical for Miami in September and unlikely to greatly affect gameplay.
- Both teams are out of playoff contention; however, Miami aims to salvage pride at home with a better overall record, providing motivation to close the season strong. Washington has been fighting late-season momentum but lacks the consistency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -124 for Miami, +106 for Washington | Miami Marlins to win | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Miami -1.5 at -200, Washington +1.5 at +164 | Miami Marlins -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8 at -106, Under 8 at -114 | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Marlins 12% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Miami Marlins at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Miami Marlins moneyline for a confident outright win, with a close game expected under the total runs line.
Predicted Score: Miami Marlins 5, Washington Nationals 3