Match Analysis: Green Bay Packers vs Washington Commanders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 12:16 AM UTC
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Game Overview
The Green Bay Packers host the Washington Commanders in Week 2 of the 2025 NFL season on Thursday Night Football. Both teams enter the game 1-0, and the matchup is tightly contested with the Packers favored by 3.5 points and an over/under of 48.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams started the season strong with Packers winning a dominant game against Detroit (27-13) and Commanders a solid win over the Giants (21-6). Green Bay has been particularly strong at home under coach Matt LaFleur with a long-term winning record and a 4-3 ATS record as favorites by 3.5 points or more last season. Washington demonstrated effective defense and consistent ATS performances when underdogs in 2024, going 5-3-1.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but the Packers historically hold a slight edge at home. Both teams are well matched, though the Packers' home advantage and offensive execution give them an edge in this matchup.
- No significant injury reports of key starters for either side have been identified ahead of this game. Both teams appear near full strength, allowing their starting quarterbacksβJordan Love for Green Bay and Jayden Daniels for Washingtonβto lead unimpeded.
- Playing on prime-time Thursday night adds a national spotlight and pressure. Green Bayβs home crowd and historical success at Lambeau Field on prime time boost their confidence. Washington faces the difficulty of travel and playing in a strong atmosphere.
- Both teams want to maintain unbeaten starts, but Green Bayβs motivation is enhanced by protecting its home record and spread success. Washington aims to prove itself on the road against a traditional contender and maintain momentum following an upset division win last week.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Green Bay Packers -180, Washington Commanders +150 | Green Bay Packers win | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.5 -105, Washington Commanders +3.5 -115 | Green Bay Packers -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 48.5 -105, Under 48.5 -115 | Under 48.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Green Bay Packers -4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 48.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Green Bay Packers moneyline win, Packers to cover the -3.5 spread, and the total score to go under 48.5 points.
Predicted Score: Green Bay Packers 24 – Washington Commanders 17