Match Analysis: Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 5:06 PM UTC
- Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, Maryland
Game Overview
The Baltimore Orioles (68-77) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (64-82) in the final game of a three-game series. Orioles are favored to win but face pitching challenges. The Pirates are underdogs with strong recent pitching from Johan Oviedo.
Key Factors to Consider
- Orioles have won 7 of their last 8 games overall and lead the series 2-0. Baltimore's offense is solid but starting pitcher Cade Povich has a 5.16 ERA and an underwhelming 3-7 record. Pirates have struggled overall but Johan Oviedo (2-0, 2.70 ERA) has been effective as a starter.
- Orioles currently lead the series 2-0 with close wins (3-2 and 2-1). Historically, Orioles hold a slight edge, but games have been low scoring and tightly contested.
- No major injury concerns reported for either side affecting starting pitching or key hitters.
- The game is played at Camden Yards, a hitter-friendly park favoring the Orioles' offense. Weather and other external conditions are expected neutral.
- Orioles, still mathematically in playoff contention, are strongly motivated to sweep the series. Pirates have less at stake but could play spoiler with quality pitching.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -142, away: +120 | Pittsburgh Pirates | β β β ββ 65% |
Spread | home: +138, away: -166 | Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | over: -122, under: +100 | Over 8.5 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Baltimore Orioles 21% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Baltimore Orioles at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pirates moneyline
Predicted Score: Orioles 5 – Pirates 6