Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-05
- Time: 11:06 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Game Overview
A pivotal AL East matchup between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays with playoff implications, featuring strong pitching matchups and potent offenses.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Blue Jays lead the AL East and have a slightly better overall record (81-59) than the Yankees (78-62). Toronto has won 3 of their last 4 games and hit 704 runs this season with a .270 batting average; the Yankees have been hot recently, winning 16 of their last 22 games and 3 straight series.
- This season, the two teams have met 10 times, with the road team leading 7-3, indicating competitive games where home advantage is less decisive historically. Gausman has struggled at Yankee Stadium recently with a 7.61 ERA in 5 starts against NYY.
- No major injuries reported impacting the starting pitchers or core hitters for either team at this time.
- The game is played at Yankee Stadium, favoring the home team. Weather and other external conditions are not expected to significantly impact gameplay.
- Both teams are highly motivated: Blue Jays leading the division aiming to maintain their top spot, and Yankees chasing to close the 3-game gap in a crucial late-season series.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees -134, Toronto Blue Jays +114 | New York Yankees | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | New York Yankees -1.5 at +150, Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 at -182 | New York Yankees -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 at -122, Under 8.5 at +100 | Over 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Yankees to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, and the game to go over 8.5 total runs.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 – Blue Jays 4