Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-26
- Time: 10:41 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Game Overview
This MLB matchup features the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. Both teams have similar records near .500 and are fighting for playoff relevance, making this a high-stakes and closely contested game. The Guardians enter as slight favorites on the moneyline and spread, while betting markets set the total runs line around 7.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Guardians have a good record as favorites (58.9% wins) but recent form is weaker with a 3-7-0 ATS record in their last 10, and they have underperformed as favorites in recent games. Tampa Bay has won 3 straight, including a dominant recent victory (9-0) and has a solid pitching staff ERA of 3.97, although their starter Baz has struggled with a 5.22 ERA.
- Historically, the matchups have been competitive with no clear dominant team. Recent H2H has hinted at a close contest with probabilities around 50% for each team. The Rays have performed well as underdogs, winning about 40.3% of such games this season.
- No significant injuries reported impacting key players for either team as of game time, allowing both teams' starting lineups and rotations to perform at expected levels.
- Playing at Progressive Field offers a home advantage for Cleveland, but Tampa Bayβs recent strong pitching performance and bats mitigate this. Weather and travel fatigue are neutral given the schedule and location.
- Both teams are competing for diminishing playoff chances, increasing motivation levels significantly, but Tampa Bayβs recent win streak provides momentum and confidence that could sway the outcome.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -120, away: +102 | Tampa Bay Rays | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | home: +172, away: -210 | Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Under 7.5 runs | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tampa Bay Rays 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Rays moneyline
Predicted Score: Rays 5 – Guardians 3