Match Analysis: Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-27
- Time: 1:41 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Washington
Game Overview
A tightly matched MLB game with the Seattle Mariners at home facing the San Diego Padres. Both teams have strong records (Seattle 71-61, San Diego 74-58) and contrasting pitching matchups with Mariners' Luis Castillo (8-7, 3.57 ERA) against Padres' Dylan Cease (6-11, 4.71 ERA). The betting market slightly favors Seattle on the moneyline but San Diego is favored on the spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego is marginally better in season record but recently lost a home game to Seattle 9-6. Seattle has been stronger at home, while Padresβ pitching on the road (Cease) shows higher ERA and no road wins this season.
- In the last five starts against Padres, Castillo has performed excellently with a 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA. Mariners edged Padres in recent meetings including the previous 9-6 victory.
- Notable injured players for Padres include J. Merrill and G. Santos; Mariners have T. Thornton sidelined. No direct impact on starting pitchers.
- Game played at Mariners' home ballpark, generally giving them edge in crowd support and familiarity. Weather and field conditions expected neutral; no adverse external influences.
- Padres seeking to rebound after recent loss and prepare for upcoming road series; Mariners motivated to maintain home dominance and gain divisional advantage in a close race.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | San Diego Padres: -104, Seattle Mariners: -112 | Seattle Mariners | β β β ββ 66% |
Spread | San Diego Padres -1.5: +168, Seattle Mariners +1.5: -205 | Seattle Mariners +1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8: -105, Under 8: -115 | Over 8 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Seattle Mariners 0% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 8 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 8 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline.
Predicted Score: Seattle Mariners 6 – San Diego Padres 4