Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 11:36 PM UTC
- Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Rays host the St. Louis Cardinals in this MLB matchup. The Rays have a losing record at home and have struggled recently after playing consecutive days, while the Cardinals have momentum with recent wins and strong performance as road underdogs against AL East teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rays are 61-67 overall with a 32-33 home record and have allowed 33 runs in their last four games. Cardinals are 64-65 overall with a 29-35 road record but have won their last five games as road underdogs against AL East teams.
- The last matchup on August 22 had the Cardinals defeating the Rays 7-4. The Cardinals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL East opponents.
- No significant injury updates reported for either team affecting starting pitchers or key hitters.
- Game is played at home in Tampa Bay under normal weather conditions with no noted external disruptions. The Rays are starting Adrian Houser (6-4, 2.67 ERA) while the Cardinals start Miles Mikolas (6-9, 4.99 ERA).
- Cardinals motivated by recent good form and ability to cover spread as underdogs; Rays have struggled to cover run line after playing previous day, indicating possible fatigue.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Cardinals +114, Rays -134 | Cardinals | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Cardinals +1.5 (-194), Rays -1.5 (160) | Cardinals +1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 9 (-110), Under 9 (-110) | Under 9 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | St. Louis Cardinals 24% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 9 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Take the St. Louis Cardinals to win outright on the moneyline and cover the +1.5 run spread. Expect a low-scoring game with total runs under 9.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 5 – Rays 3