Match Analysis: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles vs Dolphins - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 5:00 AM UTC
- Location: Lottoland
Game Overview
The Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, slight favorites at home against the Dolphins in NRL Round 25, face a competitive matchup with close odds. Both teams have shown resilience, but Manly's home advantage and recent form make this a tight contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Manly holds a moderate edge with recent form showing a 55% chance of victory, supported by consistent offense and defensive solidity, while Dolphins have shown competitive spirit but are underdog on the road.
- Historically, Manly has held a slight advantage over Dolphins, particularly at home, as indicated by recent simulations showing the Sea Eagles favored by a small margin.
- No significant injuries reported for either side impacting key players; both teams expected near full strength.
- The match at Lottoland gives Manly a home crowd advantage; weather conditions expected to be neutral, not affecting game flow significantly.
- Both teams are motivated to secure points late in the season, with Manly slightly more driven to maintain playoff positioning.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Manly -113, Dolphins -106, Draw 1800 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles | β β β ββ 62% |
Spread | Manly -1.5 -105, Dolphins +1.5 -125 | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Over/under | Over 46.5 -145, Under 46.5 110 | Under 46.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 46.5 26% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles to win on the moneyline and cover the -1.5 spread; the total score expected to stay under 46.5 points.
Predicted Score: Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 24 - Dolphins 20
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