Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-21
- Time: 11:16 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Game Overview
The New York Yankees (69-57) host the Boston Red Sox (68-59) in a key AL East matchup. Both teams are closely matched in the standings with the Yankees slightly ahead. The starting pitchers are Luis Gil for the Yankees and Lucas Giolito for the Red Sox. The Yankees have home-field advantage and a deeper offensive lineup, while the Red Sox are coming off a strong recent run with multiple series wins against the Yankees this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have a slightly better record and stronger slugging percentages, particularly at home. Red Sox are on a streak with recent wins over the Yankees, including a June series and a sweep at home.
- Red Sox have been competitive with the Yankees this season, winning multiple series and showing resilience. However, home field favors the Yankees, who have won more at Yankee Stadium this season.
- Boston Red Sox have Patrick Sandoval on 60-day IL with an elbow injury, which may weaken their pitching depth. No major injuries reported for Yankees.
- The game is played at Yankee Stadium, which has historically favored the Yankees' strong lineup. Weather and other conditions unknown but assumed neutral.
- Red Sox are motivated by momentum and a chance to possibly close the gap in standings with a win. Yankees are motivated to defend home turf and maintain divisional lead.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Yankees -142, Red Sox +120 | Yankees | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Yankees -1.5 +146, Red Sox +1.5 -178 | Yankees -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 +100, Under 8.5 -122 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Yankees to win on the moneyline, Yankees to cover the -1.5 spread, and the game to go under 8.5 runs.
Predicted Score: Yankees 5, Red Sox 3