Match Analysis: Palmeiras-SP vs Club Universitario de Deportes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
Palmeiras-SP hosts Club Universitario de Deportes in the second leg of the Round of 16 in the 2025 CONMEBOL Copa Libertadores. Palmeiras holds a commanding advantage after a 4-0 away win in the first leg.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras remains unbeaten in 12 matches and has been in dominant form both domestically and internationally. Universitario have struggled against Palmeiras historically and were heavily defeated in the first leg 4-0.
- Palmeiras leads convincingly with 2 wins and 0 draws against Universitario. The recent 4-0 away win in this tie highlights the clear dominance.
- No significant injury news reported for Palmeiras. Universitario's injury status is unclear but their overall squad depth is inferior to Palmeiras.
- The match is played at Palmeiras' home ground, Allianz Parque, providing a strong home advantage. Weather and travel fatigue favor Palmeiras less impacted due to home conditions.
- Palmeiras is motivated to close out the tie comfortably in front of their home fans and progress deeper into the Copa Libertadores. Universitario face a nearly impossible task to overturn the large deficit.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Home: -315, Away: 825, Draw: 440 | Palmeiras-SP | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | Palmeiras-SP -1.5: -118, Universitario +1.5: -112 | Palmeiras-SP -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Over/under | Over 3: 110, Under 3: -145 | Under 3 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras-SP -3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras-SP to win outright (moneyline), covering a -1.5 spread, and the match to finish under 3 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-0