Match Analysis: Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-18
- Time: 10:40 PM UTC
- Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, Florida
Game Overview
The Miami Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals in a late-season MLB matchup with both teams having similar sub-.500 records: Marlins 59-65 and Cardinals 61-64. Miami is slightly favored on the moneyline and spread, with an over/under around 8 runs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams hover near .500 with Cardinals at 61-64 and Marlins at 59-65. Miami has home advantage and slightly better recent pitching form, with starting pitcher Eury Perez (5-3, 3.58 ERA) performing well at home. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore (6-10, 4.08 ERA) has struggled in previous appearances, particularly against Miami.
- Historically, Liberatore's performance against Miami has been poor (13.50 ERA, 0-0 record), while Perez is stronger at home and has an improving home ERA. Recent matchups favor Miami marginally.
- No significant injury reports for key starters or impacting lineup depth on either side noted from available sources.
- Game played at loanDepot Park favors pitchers like Perez who thrive in home park environment. No extreme weather or other external impacts reported.
- Both teams are close in standings, likely motivated to secure wins to improve playoff or draft positioning. Miami benefits from home crowd and momentum trying to bounce back after recent losses.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Marlins -127, St. Louis Cardinals +115 | Miami Marlins | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Miami Marlins -1.5 +161, St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 -185 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8 -110, Under 8 -110 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Marlins 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Miami Marlins at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami Marlins moneyline win
Predicted Score: Miami Marlins 4 - St. Louis Cardinals 2
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