Match Analysis: New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-29
- Time: 11:06 PM UTC
- Location: Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, New York
Game Overview
The New York Yankees (57-49) host the Tampa Bay Rays (54-53) in an MLB matchup with strong pitching matchups featuring Max Fried for the Yankees and Joe Boyle for the Rays. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning in the AL East with the Rays trailing the division leader by several games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Yankees have a solid home record (31-22) but have lost 4 of their last 5 games, partly due to missing Judge in the lineup. Rays are 23-25 on the road and coming off a recent losing streak, though they snapped it with a win just before this game. Offensively, Rays bat .255 with a 3.86 ERA pitching staff, while Yankees pitching and hitting have been more consistent.
- Max Fried has dominated the Rays batters in past encounters, holding them to a .109 average with 7 strikeouts in 46 at bats. Joe Boyle is less experienced but has shown promise with a 1.42 ERA in limited action. Overall, the Yankees have had the edge in recent H2H matchups, especially with Fried on the mound.
- Yankees are notably missing Aaron Judge, which weakens their offensive potential. The Rays lineup appears healthy with no significant injury concerns reported for key players.
- The game is played at Yankee Stadium, providing home-field advantage for the Yankees. Weather and other external conditions are standard with no major impacts expected.
- Yankees are motivated to bounce back after recent losses and solidify their playoff positioning at home. Rays are fighting to remain competitive in the division but face pressure on the road against a strong opponent.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Yankees -196, Rays 164 | Yankees | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Yankees -1.5 at 1.04, Rays +1.5 at 1.80 | Yankees -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 8.5 -110, Under 8.5 -110 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Yankees to win; Spread: Yankees -1.5; Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs
Predicted Score: Yankees 5 – Rays 3