Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-05
- Time: 6:21 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs face the St. Louis Cardinals in a highly anticipated MLB matchup at Wrigley Field. Coming off a decisive 11-3 win by the Cubs over the Cardinals on July 4, 2025, the Cubs will look to continue their dominant form while the Cardinals aim to rebound strongly on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs have shown strong offensive and pitching performance recently, exemplified by their 11-3 victory over the Cardinals in the previous game. The Cardinals struggled offensively in that game with only 3 runs and 3 hits. Pitching-wise, Cubs’ Colin Rea secured the win improving to 6-3, while the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas fell to 4-6.
- Recent head-to-head clashes tilt in favor of the Cubs, who won the last game convincingly at home. Historical data indicates a competitive rivalry, but the Cubs have had the edge in 2025 encounters so far.
- No specific injury reports were found in the current data, suggesting both teams are likely at or near full strength for this match.
- Playing at Wrigley Field gives the Cubs a significant home-field advantage. Weather and other external conditions are not explicitly stated but should be typical for early July in Chicago.
- The Cubs are motivated to exploit their recent dominance over the Cardinals to solidify their standing, while the Cardinals are driven to correct course and avoid a series setback, providing a competitive intensity to the game.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -136, St. Louis Cardinals: 116 | Chicago Cubs win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs: -1.5 136, St. Louis Cardinals: 1.5 -164 | St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over: 11 -110, Under: 11 -110 | Over 11 runs | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 11 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 11 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the recent dominant performance by the Cubs, their home advantage, and stronger pitching form, the prediction favors a Chicago Cubs win with a moderate to high confidence level.
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 7 – 4 St. Louis Cardinals