Match Analysis: San Jose Earthquakes vs New York Red Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-05
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: PayPal Park, San Jose, CA
Game Overview
The San Jose Earthquakes will host the New York Red Bulls at PayPal Park in San Jose on July 5, 2025, at 7:30 PM local time. This MLS matchup sees two competitive sides with some recent history, the last encounter ending in a 1-1 draw back in April 2023. Both teams feature key goal scorers with San Jose’s forward C. Arango having 10 goals and 1 assist, while New York’s E. Choupo-Moting leads with 11 goals and 1 assist. The Earthquakes currently sit 15th in MLS standings, indicating a challenging season, whereas the Red Bulls have shown solid offensive capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Jose Earthquakes have struggled this season, placed 15th in the league, showing inconsistent form. In contrast, New York Red Bulls have relied on strong attacking plays with top scorers like Choupo-Moting. Recent matches show competitive play with the last meeting being a balanced 1-1 draw.
- The last recorded head-to-head match resulted in a 1-1 draw in April 2023. This suggests a fairly even matchup historically, though current season forms differ significantly.
- No specific injury reports are available from the provided data, which suggests no major absences are known impacting the match.
- The match is played at PayPal Park, which gives San Jose home advantage. Weather or other conditions have not been noted as influential for this fixture.
- Both sides will be motivated to improve their standings and demonstrate their attacking prowess. New York Red Bulls may have slight psychological advantage due to better season performance and higher odds favoring them.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | New York Red Bulls: 235, San Jose Earthquakes: 100, Draw: 300 | San Jose Earthquakes win | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Spread | New York Red Bulls: -0.5 at -122, San Jose Earthquakes: +50 at 102 | San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 3: -112, Under 3: -108 | Under 3 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | San Jose Earthquakes -6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the home advantage for San Jose but a stronger overall season form for New York Red Bulls, the game is expected to be closely contested. A prediction leans slightly towards a New York Red Bulls win or a draw, considering their offensive strength and betting odds.
Predicted Score: San Jose Earthquakes 1 – 1 New York Red Bulls