Match Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Jackson McVey – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas

Game Overview

A late-notice UFC Vegas 111 undercard bout between Zachary Reese (home) and Jackson McVey (away), with Reese stepping in as a last-minute replacement due to a different matchup falling through[1][4]. The fight highlights two fighters with similar builds and skill sets, though Reese is perceived to possess more power and experience, while McVey is seen as competent but not extraordinary with his reach management[2].

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters are relatively unproven at the UFC level, with limited information available on their recent performances. Reese is regarded as the more physically powerful and experienced fighter in this pairing, while McVey is viewed as solid but not exceptional in utilizing his reach[2]. Both have similar size, suggesting neither will have a significant physical advantage.
• No prior head-to-head encounters between Reese and McVey exist. Both fighters are not well known in the UFC, making direct comparison challenging.
• No public information regarding injuries to either fighter is currently available[3][4]. The most significant factor is the last-minute change to the card, with Reese replacing another fighter, which may have limited his preparation time[4].
• The late switch in opponent could impact fight preparation, with Reese potentially having less time to train specifically for McVey. The bout will be held at UFC APEX, known for its controlled environment, which typically does not favor either fighter.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated to make a statement in the UFC, especially given the short-notice nature of the fight. Reese has a clear opportunity to capitalize on his perceived power advantage, while McVey may aim to utilize his technical skills for an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	{"Jackson McVey": 290, "Zachary Reese": -355}	Zachary Reese to win	Moderate (60–65%)
Over/under	{"Over 1.5": 186, "Under 1.5": -220}	Under 1.5 rounds	High (70–75%)

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Zachary Reese -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Zachary Reese is favored by bookmakers and analysts, primarily due to his perceived superior power and experience. Prediction: Zachary Reese to win by late first-round TKO, though confidence in this outcome is moderate due to limited data on both fighters[2].

Predicted Score: Zachary Reese wins by TKO in the first round

Match Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 8:45 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Texas

Game Overview

Zachary Reese and Sedriques Dumas face off in the middleweight division at UFC Noche 3. Reese, standing 6'4" and weighing in at 185 lbs, comes with a 9-2 record and is a switch fighter with a 77" reach. Dumas, 6'2" with a 79" reach and 185 lbs, holds a 10-3 record and fights orthodox. Reese is more aggressive with significant strikes landed per minute (4.28 vs 2.10) and higher accuracy (54% vs 45%), but Dumas demonstrates better defense, blocking 55% of opponent strikes versus Reese's 43% defense rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Reese has demonstrated higher striking volume and efficiency, landing significantly more strikes per minute with higher accuracy, though his defense allows more strikes. Dumas offers a solid defense and uses reach advantage despite lower striking volume.
• No prior head-to-head matches or results between Reese and Dumas, indicating this will be their first meeting.
• No reported injuries have been indicated for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight takes place at a major UFC event with high stakes; Dumas has publicly discussed financial difficulties which might affect motivation. Venue is neutral ground with no explicit home advantage.
• Reese rides momentum from recent UFC wins and his aggressive style could be fueled by a strong drive to climb rankings. Dumas appears motivated to rebound and secure financial stability through a win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Zachary Reese: -238, Sedriques Dumas: 195	Zachary Reese to win	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Zachary Reese (-3.5): -230, Sedriques Dumas (+3.5): 165	Zachary Reese to win by more than 3.5 points (dominant performance)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: 124, Under 1.5 rounds: -160	Under 1.5 rounds (early finish likely)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Zachary Reese -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Zachary Reese at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Zachary Reese is favored to win due to his more effective striking output, reach, and fighting style advantages. Dumas's superior defense and longer reach may pose challenges, but Reese's aggression and accuracy likely give him the edge.

Predicted Score: Zachary Reese wins by 2nd round TKO/KO

Match Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Dusko Todorovic – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Time: 1:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Zachary Reese and Dusko Todorovic are set to face off in a middleweight bout at UFC Vegas 107. Reese, known as 'Savage,' enters with a record of 8-2 and is favored to win. Todorovic, known as 'Thunder,' holds a 12-5 record and is looking to break a losing streak. This fight is crucial for both fighters as they seek to improve their standings in the UFC.

Key Factors to Consider

• Zachary Reese is coming off a loss but has shown impressive knockout power, earning a Performance of the Night bonus recently. Dusko Todorovic has struggled with two consecutive losses and aims to regain momentum.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between these fighters, making this a fresh encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue for both fighters.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win, with Reese looking to bounce back from a loss and Todorovic seeking to end his losing streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-230 for Zachary Reese, 190 for Dusko Todorovic	Zachary Reese	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	-3.5 for Zachary Reese (-225), +3.5 for Dusko Todorovic (165)	Zachary Reese	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds 140, Under 1.5 rounds -180	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Zachary Reese -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 44%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 44% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Zachary Reese is predicted to win due to his recent performance and knockout power, despite Todorovic's aggressive style.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Zachary Reese, potentially going the distance.