Match Analysis: Yoenis Tellez vs Abass Barou – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Caribe Royale, Orlando, Orlando, US
Game Overview
This Super Welterweight title match features Yoenis Tellez, the undefeated WBA Super Welterweight Interim Champion (10-0, 7 KOs), defending his title against Abass Baraou (16-1, 9 KOs). Tellez recently won a unanimous decision over Julian Williams and aims to become the full WBA champion. Baraou arrives with a seven-fight winning streak and a single career loss from 2020, marking this as his biggest career test.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tellez is undefeated and currently has momentum from his strongest career win, with 7 KOs out of 10 fights. Baraou is an experienced contender with a 16-1 record, having won 7 straight, showing excellent form and knockout capability.
- No direct previous matchups reported between Tellez and Baraou, making this their first encounter and a true test of styles and preparation.
- No reported injuries or concerns from either fighter going into the match, both indicating strong health and preparation.
- The fight takes place in Orlando, US, potentially favoring Tellez as he fights in front of a home country crowd. Baraou underwent a recent coaching change but retained a familiar trainer, assuring continuity.
- Tellez is motivated to defend his interim title and become the full WBA champion amid the top tier of the division. Baraou is highly motivated to elevate his career by defeating an undefeated champion, making this a pivotal fight.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Yoenis Tellez: -900, Abass Baraou: 550 | Yoenis Tellez | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Yoenis Tellez: -4.5 (-110), Abass Baraou: +4.5 (-110) | Yoenis Tellez by more than 4.5 rounds on points | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 10.5: -250, Under 10.5: 200 | Under 10.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Yoenis Tellez 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 10.5 95% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 95% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Yoenis Tellez is favored to win by decision with a strong confidence level, considering his undefeated status, recent top-level performances, and lower moneyline odds. Baraou remains a credible threat capable of challenging the champion, particularly via decision opportunities.
Predicted Score: Yoenis Tellez wins by unanimous decision after 12 rounds