Yoenis Tellez vs. Abass Barou Prediction Boxing

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Match Analysis: Yoenis Tellez vs Abass Barou – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-08-24
  • Time: 3:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Caribe Royale, Orlando, US

Game Overview

Yoenis Tellez, undefeated WBA Super Welterweight Interim Champion (10-0, 7 KOs), defends his title against Abass Baraou (16-1, 9 KOs), who is on a seven-fight winning streak. The fight represents the toughest test in Baraou's career while Tellez aims to solidify his status toward the full WBA title.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Tellez possesses an unblemished record with a notable unanimous decision win over Julian Williams, showcasing consistent dominance. Baraou is battle-tested with 17 professional fights and a higher number of overall wins, but his sole defeat was a split decision in 2020.
  • No prior H2H meetings, making the fight an analytical challenge relying on recent form and styles rather than direct matchup history.
  • Both fighters report no significant injuries; Tellez enjoyed a smooth training camp with a stable coaching environment, while Baraou has adapted to a recent coaching change but remains confident.
  • Fight taking place in Orlando, USA, slightly favoring Tellez as the Cuban champion accustomed to large international venues. Motivation is high on both sides, with Baraou seeking a career breakthrough and Tellez aiming for title unification.
  • Tellez motivated by the prospect of becoming the full WBA champion and extending his undefeated streak. Baraou motivated by a major upset to jumpstart his career at a higher level.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Yoenis Tellez: -900, Abass Baraou: 550 Yoenis Tellez ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Yoenis Tellez -3.5: -110, Abass Baraou +3.5: -110 Yoenis Tellez -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 10.5: -250, Under 10.5: 200 Under 10.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Yoenis Tellez -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 10.5 95%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 95% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yoenis Tellez wins by decision

Predicted Score: Yoenis Tellez wins by unanimous decision, 116-112 on scorecards


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