Match Analysis: Yan Santana vs Aarón Alameda – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: New York City (NYC Debut for Santana)

Game Overview

Undefeated prospect Yan Carlos Santana (14-0, 12 KOs), known for his aggressive style and high knockout rate, makes his NYC debut against experienced but less active veteran Aarón Alameda (30-2, 0 KOs). This fight is a major step up for Santana, while Alameda has fought higher-level opposition but not recently. The bout is in the undercard, suggesting competitive expectations, but Santana is heavily favored.

Key Factors to Consider

• Santana is undefeated, with 12 KOs in 14 wins, showing elite finishing ability. Alameda has a strong record but lacks recent activity and has never scored a knockout.
• No previous meetings between these fighters. The stylistic clash—Santana’s aggression and power versus Alameda’s experience and technical skill—is a main theme.
• No public reports of injuries for either fighter. Both appear healthy and prepared for scheduled bout.
• Santana debuting in NYC may add motivation, but also possible debut nerves. Alameda’s experience could help if the fight goes late.
• Santana is looking to establish himself on a bigger stage. Alameda, despite being the underdog, is fighting a hot prospect, which could bring extra urgency.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Santana -600, Alameda +400	Santana	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	Over 8.5 -195, Under 8.5 +150	Under 8.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Yan Santana -7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 8.5 63%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 63% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yan Santana by KO/TKO between rounds 6–8, leveraging his power and aggressive combinations against Alameda’s technical but less powerful game.

Predicted Score: Santana by KO/TKO in Round 7