Match Analysis: Xavier Alaoui vs Islam Youssef – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
PFL MENA 3 Bantamweight Semifinal featuring Xavier Alaoui vs. Islam Youssef, two skilled fighters competing for a final spot in the regional tournament.
Key Factors to Consider
- Xavier Alaoui holds a strong home record and has shown dominant grappling and striking control in recent fights, with a clear edge in finishing fights. Islam Youssef has a respectable 6-2 record with decent submission skills but lower finishing rate and more losses by KO/decision.
- This is their first professional matchup, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
- No reported injuries for either fighter before the bout; both made weight comfortably with Alaoui at 136 lbs and Youssef at 134.4 lbs.
- Fight takes place at a neutral arena in Riyadh; no significant altitude or travel disadvantage for either fighter. Motivation high for both as this is a semifinal with a spot in the final at stake.
- Xavier Alaoui appears more motivated given home crowd support and recent performances in PFL MENA. Islam Youssef is a strong competitor but less experienced on big stages.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Xavier Alaoui -720, Islam Youssef +520 | Xavier Alaoui | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Xavier Alaoui -1.5 -300, Islam Youssef +1.5 +240 | Xavier Alaoui -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -150, Under 2.5 rounds +120 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Xavier Alaoui -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Xavier Alaoui at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Xavier Alaoui to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Xavier Alaoui wins by 3rd round finish