Xander Zayas vs. Jorge Garcia Prediction Boxing

this is test

Match Analysis: Xander Zayas vs Jorge Garcia – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-26
  • Time: 1:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Theater Madison Square Garden, New York City

Game Overview

This super welterweight world title fight features undefeated rising star Xander Zayas (21-0, 13 KOs) against veteran challenger Jorge Garcia (33-4, 26 KOs) for the vacant WBO title. Zayas enters as a strong favorite with home crowd advantage, while Garcia earned this title shot off a career-best performance.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Xander Zayas has been undefeated with consistent recent wins including a strong showing in his last fight against Slawa Spomer. Jorge Garcia has 4 career losses but has shown resilience and power, including a notable upset over Charles Conwell to secure this shot.
  • No prior head-to-head meetings between Xander Zayas and Jorge Garcia. Styles will test youth and reach of Zayas against Garcia's experience and power.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout.
  • The fight is held at Madison Square Garden where Zayas is likely to receive the majority support, giving him an external boost. The bout also marks a milestone as the last Top Rank show on ESPN, increasing visibility and pressure.
  • Xander Zayas is highly motivated to capture his first world title on home turf and justify his undefeated status. Garcia is motivated by having earned the upset win that brought him here and seeks to capitalize on his opportunities against a favored opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Xander Zayas: -500, Jorge Garcia: 350 Xander Zayas ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Xander Zayas -3.5: -110, Jorge Garcia +3.5: -110 Xander Zayas -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 10.5 rounds: -300, Under 10.5 rounds: 225 Under 10.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Xander Zayas -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 10.5 111%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 111% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Xander Zayas to win by decision

Predicted Score: Xander Zayas wins by unanimous decision after 10 rounds


0 0