Match Analysis: Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 4:45 AM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City
Game Overview
UFC 322 main event flyweight title unification bout. Valentina Shevchenko (dominant incumbent flyweight champion) defends against Weili Zhang (former strawweight champion moving up in weight). This is a super fight between two elite combat athletes at different weight classes, with significant stylistic contrasts.
Key Factors to Consider
- Shevchenko: 10 title-fight wins since 2018, most recently defeated Manon Fiorot via decision. Established dominant flyweight champion with well-rounded skills. Zhang: Dominant strawweight run with two title reigns and three title defenses, recently defeated Tatiana Suarez via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45) at UFC 312. Both fighters on strong recent form, but Shevchenko has superior championship experience at the target weight class.
- No previous matchup history between these fighters. Zhang is moving up in weight class for this title unification, which introduces uncertainty in how her skills translate.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- Zhang moves up from strawweight to flyweight, a significant weight class jump that may affect her physical advantages and cardio efficiency. Shevchenko fights at home weight class with superior title experience at flyweight. MSG provides neutral venue without significant home field advantage.
- Both fighters are highly motivated in a title unification super fight. Shevchenko defends legacy as dominant champion. Zhang seeks to become a multi-division champion with an athletic and stylistically dangerous challenge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Shevchenko -135 / Zhang +114 | Valentina Shevchenko | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Shevchenko -5.5 (-165) / Zhang +5.5 (+230) | Zhang +5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
| Over/under | Over 4.5 rounds (-270) / Under 4.5 rounds (+200) | Under 4.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valentina Shevchenko 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Valentina Shevchenko at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Valentina Shevchenko wins by decision. The betting market undervalues Shevchenko's experience advantage at flyweight and her elite defensive skills. While Zhang's athleticism and striking pose real threats, Shevchenko's 10 title-fight wins and recent victory over a top contender position her as the more complete fighter at this weight class. The decision outcome (-110 to -140 range across books) offers the best risk-reward, as knockout is less likely given both fighters' technical styles.
Predicted Score: Valentina Shevchenko wins via unanimous or split decision after 3 rounds (or early stoppage favoring Shevchenko in round 2 if Zhang's weight class adjustment significantly impacts her performance).