Match Analysis: Wasiu Adeshina vs Dwight Joseph – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Africa 3, Rwanda (exact venue unspecified)

Game Overview

This featherweight matchup features Wasiu Adeshina versus Dwight Joseph in the PFL Africa 3 tournament. Joseph enters as a slight favorite with American odds of -128, while Adeshina is the underdog at +108. The contest is expected to be competitive given both fighters' recent form and the tournament stakes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Dwight Joseph has shown consistent recent form in the PFL circuit with a combination of grappling and striking that secures decision wins and occasional finishes. Wasiu Adeshina comes off strong performances but with less consistency in high-pressure bouts.
• No direct prior matchups between Adeshina and Joseph, so no direct H2H data to influence prediction.
• No publicly reported injuries or fight camp interruptions for either fighter, suggesting both are at full health.
• Being a PFL Africa event held in Rwanda, neither fighter holds a home-region advantage, with equal travel demands and acclimatization.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure PFL points towards the season, but Joseph's slight favorite status might reflect a stronger psychological edge and confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dwight Joseph: -128, Wasiu Adeshina: +108	Dwight Joseph	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Dwight Joseph -1.5 rounds: -150, Wasiu Adeshina +1.5 rounds: +130	Dwight Joseph -1.5 rounds (win before end of round 2)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -195, Under 1.5 rounds: +170	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dwight Joseph -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Dwight Joseph to win by decision

Predicted Score: Dwight Joseph wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Wasiu Adeshina vs Jean-Jacques Lubaya – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Unknown

Game Overview

Wasiu Adeshina, known as 'The Nigerian Jaguar,' enters this featherweight contest with a strong 4-fight KO streak and excellent striking skills. Jean-Jacques Lubaya is recognized for his grappling ability and endurance, aiming to capitalize by taking the fight to the ground early.

Key Factors to Consider

• Adeshina is on a 4-win KO streak suggesting powerful finishing ability while Lubaya has a recent strong record with grappling strengths, showing durability and tactical grappling application.
• No recorded direct matchups found between Adeshina and Lubaya, making this a largely stylistic matchup between striking (Adeshina) and grappling (Lubaya).
• No known injuries reported for either fighter entering this matchup.
• Both fighters compete in Africa-based promotions with similar preparation environments; Adeshina's recent form and KO streak give him a psychological edge.
• Lubaya is motivated to prove himself as the next big African MMA star, while Adeshina is motivated to continue his KO streak and dominance in featherweight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Adeshina -170, Lubaya +140	Wasiu Adeshina	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Adeshina -1.5 rounds at approx. -130	Adeshina -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Under 2.5 rounds at approx. -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Wasiu Adeshina 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Wasiu Adeshina at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Wasiu Adeshina to win via KO/TKO, confident in his striking advantage. Spread: Adeshina -1.5 rounds, expecting a finish pre-decision. Over/Under: Under 2.5 rounds, predicted quick stoppage.

Predicted Score: Wasiu Adeshina wins by KO in round 2