Pittsburgh Pirates (65-84) visit Washington Nationals (61-87) with both teams struggling offensively overall this season. Starting pitchers are Mike Burrows (2-4, 3.99 ERA) for the Pirates and Cade Cavalli (3-1, 4.67 ERA) for the Nationals. Despite the Nationals' better home record, the Pirates are slight favorites on the moneyline and runline reflecting their superior recent form and pitching matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
Pirates have a poor overall season but show moderate advantage as road favorites, winning 19 of 37 such games, while Nationals have a losing record but a marginally better OPS and runs scored. Both offenses rank low nationally, suggesting a lower scoring game.
Recent H2H shows low scoring, tight affairs with Nationals winning previous day 5-1 and a 6-5 Pirates win the day before. Both teams split recent games, indicating competitive balance.
No major injuries reported affecting starting pitchers or key lineup players for either team at present.
Game at Nationals Park offers gentle pitcher-friendly environment with no extreme weather or ballpark shifts reported. No significant travel or fatigue factors observed.
Both teams out of postseason contention; marginal motivation but Pirates slightly more motivated as underdogs to salvage season respect.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
103
Pittsburgh Pirates
★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread
-212
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5
★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under
-110
Under 8.5
★★★☆☆ 64%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates 6%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8.5 18%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
The Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals with Miami as a slight favorite on the moneyline and run line, starting with Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore as pitchers. The matchup favors the Marlins given home advantage, better pitching, and recent form discrepancies.
Key Factors to Consider
The Marlins hold a 67-79 season record and have shown stronger recent results against the Nationals, who are 60-85. Miami's pitching and hitting have been more consistent, while Washington has struggled with a 5.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over this season.
In their recent series, Miami won decisively including an 11-9 and 11-4 victory. Washington has had difficulty containing Miami's offense and has been outperformed in pitching matchups against them.
No significant injuries reported that would drastically impact either starting pitcher or major offensive contributors for this game.
Playing at loanDepot park provides Miami with clear home field advantage. Weather conditions are typical for Miami in September and unlikely to greatly affect gameplay.
Both teams are out of playoff contention; however, Miami aims to salvage pride at home with a better overall record, providing motivation to close the season strong. Washington has been fighting late-season momentum but lacks the consistency.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
-124 for Miami, +106 for Washington
Miami Marlins to win
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Miami -1.5 at -200, Washington +1.5 at +164
Miami Marlins -1.5
★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under
Over 8 at -106, Under 8 at -114
Under 8 runs
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Miami Marlins 12%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8 9%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Miami Marlins at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Miami Marlins moneyline for a confident outright win, with a close game expected under the total runs line.
Predicted Score: Miami Marlins 5, Washington Nationals 3
The Chicago Cubs, with an 81-61 record, are solid favorites hosting the struggling 57-84 Washington Nationals. Cubs have shown strong recent form and a more effective pitching staff, while the Nationals have struggled notably on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
Cubs have won 3 of their last 5 games and stand second in the NL Central with a 3.87 ERA pitching staff and potent offense led by Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong. Nationals have lost 6 of their last 7 road games, averaging only 2.5 runs in away matches recently.
In recent matchups, Cubs have dominated the Nationals including a 14-1 win earlier in the season and a 7-6 victory in September 2024 at Wrigley.
No major injury concerns reported for either team affecting starting pitchers or key hitters for this game.
Game played at home in Wrigley Field benefits Cubs, with typical fan support and familiar conditions.
Cubs are competing for playoff positioning (second in division), whereas Nationals have a losing season and less at stake.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Cubs -188 / Nationals +158
Cubs
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Cubs -1.5 +116 / Nationals +1.5 -140
Cubs -1.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 8.5 -102 / Under 8.5 -120
Under 8.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs 3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8.5 1%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Chicago Cubs at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5% (Kelly Criterion)
The Miami Marlins (65-74) face the struggling Washington Nationals (55-83) in a late-season MLB matchup. Marlins come in as favorites with better recent form and starting pitching advantage. Nationals have been underperforming with weaker pitching and offense this season.
Key Factors to Consider
Marlins have won 3 of their last 5 games, with offense averaging 4.34 runs and pitching ERA around 4.96. Nationals have lost 8 of their last 10, posting a 5.31 ERA and subpar .243 batting average. Marlins’ pitcher Eury Perez has a 4.04 ERA but recent struggles. Nationals’ Mitchell Parker has a high 5.94 ERA and a poor 7-15 record.
Nationals won the first two games in this series with scores 2-0 and 5-2, but overall recent form favors Marlins who hit better and have more consistent pitching.
No significant injuries reported impacting probable starters or key offensive players for either team.
Game played outdoors at Nationals Park with neutral weather conditions expected. Home field advantage slightly favors Nationals but their poor form limits this.
Neither team is playoff bound, but Marlins show slightly higher motivation to avoid a losing streak and improve standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Marlins -138 / Nationals +118
Miami Marlins
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Marlins -1.5 +114 / Nationals +1.5 -137
Miami Marlins -1.5
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 9 -108 / Under 9 -112
Over 9 runs
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Miami Marlins -2%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 9 16%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 9 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami Marlins to win on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 run spread, with the game going over 9 total runs.
Predicted Score: Miami Marlins 6, Washington Nationals 3
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the Washington Nationals in an MLB matchup where the Rays are slight favorites with live odds showing Tampa Bay at -142 moneyline and a -1.5 run spread. The Rays are vying to keep playoff hopes alive while the rebuilding Nationals are struggling with a losing streak.
Key Factors to Consider
The Rays hold a 66-69 record and have won two straight, going 3-2 in their last five. Nationals stand at 53-82 with a seven-game losing streak and poor recent form.
Recent H2H favors the Rays, who have held an edge in pitching matchups and overall team quality. Historical spread coverage is 7-5 ATS for Nationals' starter Brad Lord but Rays have superior recent results.
No significant injuries reported affecting starting pitchers or key lineups for either team.
Game played at Nationals Park with pleasant 78°F weather, no rain, and light wind, favoring normal playing conditions. Home crowd support exists but limited impact given Nationals current form.
Rays are motivated to keep playoff contention alive, sitting 5.5 games out of the wildcard spot. Nationals, likely out of contention, are in rebuilding mode with limited incentive.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays: -142, Washington Nationals: +120
Tampa Bay Rays
★★★★☆ 72%
Spread
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +118, Washington Nationals +1.5 -142
Washington Nationals +1.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over 8.5 -122, Under 8.5 +100
Over 8.5
★★★☆☆ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays 6%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Over 8.5 -5%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tampa Bay Rays at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Rays to win on the moneyline, Washington Nationals to cover the +1.5 run spread, and total runs over 8.5.