Match Analysis: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Ante Delija – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-02
• Time: 1:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

This heavyweight UFC co-main event features Waldo Cortes-Acosta, an established UFC fighter with a 7-2 UFC record, versus Ante Delija, a powerful and rising contender coming off an impressive UFC debut knockout win. Cortes-Acosta is a technical boxer with precise striking but faces a reach disadvantage and a recent loss. Delija is a multi-dimensional fighter, skilled in both striking and grappling, with momentum from back-to-back knockout wins and strong training partners.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cortes-Acosta has a solid UFC pedigree with a 4-1 record in his last five fights, relying on precise striking and power. Delija, new to UFC but experienced from his PFL success, is on an upward trend with consecutive knockout victories and a recent Performance of the Night bonus.
• No prior head-to-head matchups between the fighters.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fight takes place at the UFC Apex, where both fighters have competed before. Delija's recent transition from PFL to UFC and training alongside champion Tom Aspinall bolster his confidence and readiness.
• Delija is motivated to establish himself as a top heavyweight contender in UFC after a strong debut. Cortes-Acosta aims to rebound from a recent loss and maintain his UFC ranking.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +110, away: -130	Away	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	home: -165, away: +120	Away -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: -140, under: +110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ante Delija 16%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 30%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ante Delija to win by knockout or decision

Predicted Score: Ante Delija wins by KO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Sergey Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 11:15 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium

Game Overview

Sergey Pavlovich, a heavy striker with a powerful knockout record, faces Waldo Cortes-Acosta, a taller heavyweight with a strong reach advantage and an impressive 14-1 record. Pavlovich's experience and finishing ability position him as the favorite, while Cortes-Acosta poses a technical challenge with his sit-and-move style.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pavlovich has a 19-3 record with multiple recent knockouts showing peak form, while Cortes-Acosta is 14-1 with only one loss but less finishing power. Recent form favors Pavlovich given his finishing pace and durability.
• No prior head-to-head matchups exist between the two fighters, increasing uncertainty but emphasizing reliance on style and trends.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout, indicating both should be at full strength.
• The fight takes place at a neutral venue (Shanghai), minimizing travel advantage. Pavlovich’s camp is known for high-level strategy and conditioning.
• Pavlovich is motivated to maintain his status as a top contender in the heavyweight division, while Cortes-Acosta looks to make a breakthrough by defeating a high-profile opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -245, away: 200	Sergey Pavlovich	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	home: -150, away: 110	Sergey Pavlovich -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over: -175, under: 135	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sergey Pavlovich -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 60%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 60% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sergey Pavlovich to win by knockout within 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Pavlovich wins by KO in round 1

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – August 23, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling Prediction	Under 4.5	170	76%
Sergey Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction	Under 1.5	135	60%
Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas Prediction	Over 2.5	-270	20%

Combined Odds: +770 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $173.9

Match Analysis: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Sergey Spivak – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: TBD (UFC 316)

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC heavyweight match between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Sergey Spivak promises to be an exciting bout. Spivak is favored in the fight, with odds reflecting his skillset and experience. Cortes-Acosta, despite being an underdog, has shown consistency in his recent performances and aims to upset the favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sergey Spivak is considered the favorite due to his strong grappling skills and ability to finish fights with submissions. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, has been active, fighting every five months on average and possesses a strong striking background.
• There is no reported head-to-head history between the two fighters.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to this match.
• The match is part of the UFC 316 event, which might draw attention and increase the stakes for both fighters.
• Both fighters are motivated to climb the heavyweight rankings, with Spivac looking to solidify his position and Cortes-Acosta seeking an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-142 (Spivak), +120 (Cortes-Acosta)	Spivak	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	-3.5 (Spivak) 110, 3.5 (Cortes-Acosta) -150	Spivak	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +120, Under 2.5: -154	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sergey Spivak -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Spivak is likely to win due to his grappling skills and experience, but Cortes-Acosta's aggressive style could pose a challenge.

Predicted Score: Spivak via decision or submission.

Match Analysis: Ryan Spann vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-15
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Ryan Spann makes his heavyweight debut against Waldo Cortes-Acosta at UFC Vegas 104. Spann moves up from light heavyweight, while Cortes-Acosta looks to continue his success in the heavyweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Waldo Cortes-Acosta has a strong record of 12-1, with significant striking power and decent grappling skills. Ryan Spann, with a record of 22-10, is known for his athleticism but faces a challenge in his heavyweight debut.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Spann's move to heavyweight could impact his performance due to the weight change and facing larger opponents.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Spann looking to prove himself in a new division and Cortes-Acosta aiming to maintain his winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ryan Spann: +150, Waldo Cortes-Acosta: -180	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -180, Under 1.5: +140	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is favored to win.

Predicted Score: Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins via TKO in the second round.