Match Analysis: Sergey Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 11:15 AM UTC
• Location: Shanghai Indoor Stadium

Game Overview

Sergey Pavlovich, a heavy striker with a powerful knockout record, faces Waldo Cortes-Acosta, a taller heavyweight with a strong reach advantage and an impressive 14-1 record. Pavlovich's experience and finishing ability position him as the favorite, while Cortes-Acosta poses a technical challenge with his sit-and-move style.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pavlovich has a 19-3 record with multiple recent knockouts showing peak form, while Cortes-Acosta is 14-1 with only one loss but less finishing power. Recent form favors Pavlovich given his finishing pace and durability.
• No prior head-to-head matchups exist between the two fighters, increasing uncertainty but emphasizing reliance on style and trends.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout, indicating both should be at full strength.
• The fight takes place at a neutral venue (Shanghai), minimizing travel advantage. Pavlovich’s camp is known for high-level strategy and conditioning.
• Pavlovich is motivated to maintain his status as a top contender in the heavyweight division, while Cortes-Acosta looks to make a breakthrough by defeating a high-profile opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -245, away: 200	Sergey Pavlovich	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	home: -150, away: 110	Sergey Pavlovich -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over: -175, under: 135	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sergey Pavlovich -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 60%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 60% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sergey Pavlovich to win by knockout within 1.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Pavlovich wins by KO in round 1

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – August 23, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling Prediction	Under 4.5	170	76%
Sergey Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction	Under 1.5	135	60%
Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas Prediction	Over 2.5	-270	20%

Combined Odds: +770 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $173.9

Match Analysis: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Sergey Spivak – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: TBD (UFC 316)

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC heavyweight match between Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Sergey Spivak promises to be an exciting bout. Spivak is favored in the fight, with odds reflecting his skillset and experience. Cortes-Acosta, despite being an underdog, has shown consistency in his recent performances and aims to upset the favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sergey Spivak is considered the favorite due to his strong grappling skills and ability to finish fights with submissions. Waldo Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, has been active, fighting every five months on average and possesses a strong striking background.
• There is no reported head-to-head history between the two fighters.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to this match.
• The match is part of the UFC 316 event, which might draw attention and increase the stakes for both fighters.
• Both fighters are motivated to climb the heavyweight rankings, with Spivac looking to solidify his position and Cortes-Acosta seeking an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-142 (Spivak), +120 (Cortes-Acosta)	Spivak	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	-3.5 (Spivak) 110, 3.5 (Cortes-Acosta) -150	Spivak	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +120, Under 2.5: -154	Under	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sergey Spivak -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Spivak is likely to win due to his grappling skills and experience, but Cortes-Acosta's aggressive style could pose a challenge.

Predicted Score: Spivak via decision or submission.

Match Analysis: Ryan Spann vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-15
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Ryan Spann makes his heavyweight debut against Waldo Cortes-Acosta at UFC Vegas 104. Spann moves up from light heavyweight, while Cortes-Acosta looks to continue his success in the heavyweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Waldo Cortes-Acosta has a strong record of 12-1, with significant striking power and decent grappling skills. Ryan Spann, with a record of 22-10, is known for his athleticism but faces a challenge in his heavyweight debut.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Spann's move to heavyweight could impact his performance due to the weight change and facing larger opponents.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Spann looking to prove himself in a new division and Cortes-Acosta aiming to maintain his winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ryan Spann: +150, Waldo Cortes-Acosta: -180	Waldo Cortes-Acosta	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -180, Under 1.5: +140	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is favored to win.

Predicted Score: Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins via TKO in the second round.