Match Analysis: Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: ABHA Arena, Saudi Arabia (UFC Qatar)
Game Overview
UFC Fight Night 265 features a Light Heavyweight division matchup between Swiss veteran Volkan Oezdemir (20-8 MMA, 8-7 UFC) and American contender Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1 MMA, 12-5-1 UFC). This is Oezdemir's return to competition after nearly one year away following a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg. Menifield has remained active with recent wins, creating an interesting dynamic between ring rust concerns and momentum. Both fighters are considered accomplished strikers, though Oezdemir enters as the technical favorite with superior striking volume and grappling credentials.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oezdemir has won 3 of his last 5 fights but suffered a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg approximately one year ago. Over his last 6 UFC fights, he compiled a 3-3 record. Menifield demonstrates superior recent form with a 4-2 record over his last 6 UFC fights and has proven he can go the distance in recent victories. Menifield is 3-2 in his last 5 fights overall and has already competed twice in 2025, showing active competition schedule. Oezdemir's finish rate is exceptional: 15 of his 20 wins came via stoppage, indicating strong knockout power and technical striking advantage.
- No prior UFC or MMA history exists between these fighters. However, comparative striking metrics reveal Oezdemir averages 4.95 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy, while Menifield averages 3.79 significant strikes per minute with 53% accuracy. Defensively, Menifield absorbs less damage (3.76 strikes per minute vs. Oezdemir's 4.22), suggesting a more defensive fighting approach. Both fighters average 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes with comparable grappling defense around 78-80%, indicating evenly matched wrestling.
- No injuries or health concerns reported for either fighter. Both are cleared to compete.
- The fight takes place in ABHA Arena, Saudi Arabia, which may affect Oezdemir more given his European base and year-long layoff. Menifield has demonstrated comfort competing in various locations with active recent schedule. Ring rust is a significant consideration for Oezdemir, as extended layoffs typically impact timing, footwork, and fight rhythm.
- Oezdemir is motivated to make a statement after his layoff and eyes a potential title shot if victorious, with aspirations to face Jamahal Hill next. He expressed confidence in outclassing Menifield and believes there are 'levels' to the division. Menifield seeks to upset the favored veteran and establish himself as a legitimate contender. Oezdemir's pre-fight comments suggest confidence in a first-round finish, while his prediction of a 'banger' indicates he expects an exciting, technical striking exchange.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oezdemir -225 | Menifield +185 | Alonzo Menifield Moneyline | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Oezdemir -7.5 (-115) | Menifield +7.5 (-115) | Alonzo Menifield +7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-154) | Under 2.5 Rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Volkan Oezdemir 97% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Volkan Oezdemir at 97% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 52.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alonzo Menifield represents compelling value as an underdog upset pick. Despite Oezdemir's technical superiority and knockout power, multiple analytical factors favor Menifield: (1) Superior recent form (4-2 vs. 3-3 in last 6 fights), (2) Active competition schedule reducing ring rust concerns, (3) Demonstrably less damage absorption indicating superior defensive positioning, (4) Oezdemir's year-long layoff creating timing and rhythm concerns, (5) Menifield's proven ability to go the distance in recent victories. While Oezdemir possesses higher technical striking volume and finishing rate, Menifield's defensive acumen, recent momentum, and conditioning advantage from active competition create a favorable matchup despite unfavorable odds. The spread of 7.5 rounds appears inflated given Menifield's demonstrated durability and recent competitive success.
Predicted Score: Alonzo Menifield via Decision (Unanimous or Split) or Late-Round Finish. Primary prediction favors Menifield winning by judges' decision in the 3rd round after a competitive striking exchange. Secondary scenario: Oezdemir's superior striking catches Menifield late in Round 2 or early Round 3 for a knockout finish. Over 2.5 rounds slightly favored due to both fighters' demonstrated striking exchanges and Menifield's defensive approach extending fight duration beyond Oezdemir's preferred quick finish.