Match Analysis: Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
The UFC 317 prelims feature a women's flyweight bout between Viviane Araujo and Tracy Cortez. Araujo, a 38-year-old Brazilian fighter with a record of 13-6, looks to capitalize on her experience against Cortez, a younger American fighter with an 11-2 record. Both fighters are orthodox with similar height and reach, but Cortez has a slight edge in recent UFC momentum. The fight is expected to be competitive, with Cortez favored by bookmakers due to her wrestling skills and recent performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Viviane Araujo has a UFC record of 7-5 and lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute with a 47% connect rate, but absorbs 4.87 strikes per minute and defends 56%. Tracy Cortez holds a UFC record of 5-1, landing 3.72 strikes per minute at the same 47% accuracy, while taking fewer strikes at 3.02 per minute and defending 57%. Cortez's wrestling and ability to avoid damage have been highlighted as key strengths.
- This will be the first matchup between Viviane Araujo and Tracy Cortez, so no direct head-to-head data is available. Analysis must rely on their respective performances against common opponents and fighting styles.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter leading into this bout, allowing both to compete at full strength.
- The fight takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a neutral venue favored for large UFC events. Environmental factors such as crowd support may slightly favor Araujo due to her Brazilian fanbase, but Cortez’s motivation to rebound after a recent underperformance is significant.
- Tracy Cortez is motivated to overcome a recent loss in a main event bout and is viewed as the underdog with something to prove. Viviane Araujo aims to leverage her experience and maintain momentum in the UFC after a mixed record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tracy Cortez: -250, Viviane Araujo: 205 | Tracy Cortez | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Tracy Cortez -3.5: 130, Viviane Araujo +3.5: -180 | Tracy Cortez -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -720, Under 2.5: 450 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tracy Cortez -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 285% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 285% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tracy Cortez is predicted to win the bout due to her superior wrestling, defensive capabilities, and the bookmakers' favoring of her odds. While Araujo’s experience offers a competitive fight, Cortez’s recent performances and ability to control fights give her an edge.
Predicted Score: Tracy Cortez wins by decision, likely unanimous judges' decision within 3 rounds