Match Analysis: Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
The UFC 317 matchup features Women’s Flyweight fighters Viviane Araujo and Tracy Cortez. Cortez enters with an 11-2 record and strong wrestling skills, while Araujo has a 13-6 record and slightly higher striking volume. Both fight orthodox and weigh 115 lbs, with minor differences in height and reach. Cortez is favored by bookmakers, reflecting her recent performances and perceived momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tracy Cortez has demonstrated solid wrestling control and defensive skills, limiting opponents to 3.02 significant strikes per minute, while landing 3.72 with 47% accuracy. Viviane Araujo strikes more frequently at 4.04 significant strikes per minute but takes more damage defensively (4.87 absorbed). Cortez's ability to shut down pressure fighters and maintain fighter pace is a key advantage.
- This will be their first professional encounter with no direct previous matchups recorded, so the fight largely hinges on style matchups and recent form.
- No reported injuries for either fighter have emerged leading into UFC 317, suggesting both are at full health and ready.
- The fight takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a neutral venue with no home crowd advantage. Both fighters have strong motivation to climb the Flyweight rankings at this major UFC event.
- Cortez aims to build on her breakthrough win in 2023 and rebound from a loss in a main event bout, while Araujo looks to leverage her striking volume and experience to secure a notable win against a top contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tracy Cortez: -250, Viviane Araujo: 205 | Tracy Cortez to win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Tracy Cortez: -3.5 130, Viviane Araujo: 3.5 -180 | Tracy Cortez to cover -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -720, Under 2.5 rounds: 450 | Over 2.5 rounds (fight to go majority decision) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tracy Cortez -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tracy Cortez at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tracy Cortez is predicted to win by decision or late stoppage due to her wrestling control and defensive capabilities, limiting Araujo's striking effectiveness and pace.
Predicted Score: Tracy Cortez wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)