Match Analysis: Thomas Petersen vs Vitor Petrino – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Heavyweight UFC bout between Thomas Petersen and Vitor Petrino, featuring two contrasting styles and similar physical stats, set for October 11, 2025 at UFC Rio.

Key Factors to Consider

• Petrino holds a 12-2 record with high striking accuracy (45%) and solid defense (47% strikes absorbed). Petersen is 10-3 with higher striking volume and accuracy (59%) and better defense (57%). Petersen recently won decisively via unanimous decision over Don'Tale Mayes.
• No direct previous matchups between the fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the bout.
• The fight takes place at UFC Rio, Petrino's home country, likely favoring him psychologically and crowd support. The southpaw Petersen may present stylistic challenges.
• Petersen appears motivated coming off a recent win and is slightly older (30 vs 28), while Petrino aims to maintain dominant home status with a strong 12-2 career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Thomas Petersen: +240, Vitor Petrino: -298	Vitor Petrino	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Thomas Petersen +3.5: +130, Vitor Petrino -3.5: -180	Vitor Petrino -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -200, Under 1.5 rounds: +154	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vitor Petrino -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 52%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 52% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Prediction favors Vitor Petrino on moneyline given his strong form, home advantage, and betting market consensus despite Petersen’s higher striking output.

Predicted Score: Vitor Petrino wins by decision or late finish within 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – October 11, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto Prediction	Under 1.5	190	103%
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction	Over 2.5	-445	56%
Thomas Petersen vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction	Under 1.5	154	52%

Combined Odds: +802 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $180.43

Match Analysis: Vitor Petrino vs Austen Lane – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-07-12
• Time: 1:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville, Tennessee, United States

Game Overview

Vitor Petrino, coming off two consecutive losses, faces Austen Lane, who has suffered KO/TKO losses in three of his last four bouts. Despite Petrino's recent form, he remains a heavy favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Petrino's recent losses might affect his confidence, but Lane's vulnerability to KO/TKO could be a significant factor.
• No previous matchups between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• External factors such as crowd support might favor Petrino due to his higher profile.
• Petrino is highly motivated to break his losing streak, while Lane seeks to capitalize on Petrino's recent downturn.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-700 for Vitor Petrino, +500 for Austen Lane	Vitor Petrino	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	-3.5 for Vitor Petrino, +3.5 for Austen Lane	Vitor Petrino	★★★★☆ 82%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds +140, Under 1.5 rounds -180	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vitor Petrino -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vitor Petrino wins by TKO/KO in the first round.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Shirzad Qadrian vs. Cameron Else Prediction	Shirzad Qadrian Win	-460	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Vitor Petrino vs. Austen Lane Prediction	Vitor Petrino Win	-700	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Tom Creasey vs. Raz Bring Prediction	Tom Creasey Win	-800	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -177

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $31.3