Vitor Costa vs. Damian Pinas Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Vitor Costa vs Damian Pinas – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-01
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Middleweight matchup between Vitor Costa and Damian Pinas, two rising fighters with similar records, facing off in a three-round fight at Dana White's Contender Series. Both possess strengths in different areas: Costa excels in striking and precision, while Pinas shows strong grappling and ground game potential.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vitor Costa holds an 8-1 professional record, demonstrating a mix of striking power and agility with high recent fight activity and stamina. Damian Pinas is 7-1 with a more grappling-based style and has shown resilience, but slightly less polish in striking.
  • No previous meeting between Costa and Pinas; styles contrast may dictate outcome with Costa likely looking to keep the fight standing and Pinas attempting ground control.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter, both are expected to be at full health for the fight.
  • The fight takes place at the UFC APEX, removing travel stress and likely resulting in a neutral venue environment. Both fighters motivated to impress for UFC contract status.
  • High for both athletes, as this fight is a pivotal Dana White’s Contender Series bout with UFC contract implications. Costa's recent form and striking advantage may boost confidence, but Pinas’ grappling offers a clear path to victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Damian Pinas: -125, Vitor Costa: 105 Damian Pinas ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Damian Pinas -1.5: -145, Vitor Costa +1.5: 125 Damian Pinas -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 1.5: 165, Under 1.5: -190 Under 1.5 Rounds ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Damian Pinas -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Damian Pinas to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Damian Pinas wins via submission or decision within 2 rounds


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