Match Analysis: Vito Mielnicki Jr vs Samuel Nmomah – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Game Overview

Vito Mielnicki Jr faces Samuel Nmomah in a 10-round middleweight bout on the undercard of the Benavidez vs. Yarde event at ANB Arena, Riyadh. The fight is scheduled for Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 21:00 UTC. Both fighters are experienced professionals, with Mielnicki Jr being the clear favorite based on recent form, knockout power, and betting odds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Vito Mielnicki Jr (21-1, 12 KOs) has won 4 of his last 5 fights, most recently defeating Kamil Gadzelek by unanimous decision in June 2025. His knockout rate is 57%, indicating strong offensive power. Samuel Nmomah (21-0, 5 KOs) is undefeated but has a lower knockout percentage (24%) and last fought in March 2025, defeating Abdul Khattab by unanimous decision. Nmomah's record is solid but less impressive in terms of finishing ability.
• No previous meetings between the two fighters. This is their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter as of the latest updates.
• The fight takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which may affect travel and acclimatization for both fighters. The event is part of a high-profile card, which could add pressure or motivation.
• Mielnicki Jr is likely motivated to maintain his status as a top prospect and potentially secure a title shot. Nmomah, being undefeated, will be eager to prove himself against a higher-ranked opponent and possibly break into the world rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Samuel Nmomah: 310, Vito Mielnicki Jr: -425	Vito Mielnicki Jr	Not available
Spread	Samuel Nmomah: +3.5, Vito Mielnicki Jr: -3.5	Vito Mielnicki Jr -3.5	Not available
Over/under	over: 10.5, under: 10.5	under	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vito Mielnicki Jr -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Vito Mielnicki Jr at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vito Mielnicki Jr is expected to win by decision or knockout. His superior knockout power and recent form give him a significant edge over Samuel Nmomah, who has not faced a fighter of Mielnicki Jr's caliber before.

Predicted Score: Vito Mielnicki Jr wins by unanimous decision or TKO in rounds 8-10

Match Analysis: Vito Mielnicki Jr vs Kamil Gardzielik – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 2:00 AM UTC
• Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey

Game Overview

Vito Mielnicki Jr., a middleweight phenom from New Jersey with 20 wins and only 1 loss, faces Polish-born, unbeaten contender Kamil Gardzielik (19-0) in a 10-round main event for the vacant WBO Global, USWBC, and USBA middleweight titles at the Prudential Center. The fight attracts attention given Mielnicki's strong local following and Gardzielik's undefeated record, making it a high-profile matchup in the middleweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mielnicki Jr. has a solid record with 20 wins, 12 by knockout, demonstrating significant power and experience. Gardzielik remains unbeaten with 19 wins and 4 KOs but has less exposure in the U.S. market. Mielnicki’s single loss contrasts with Gardzielik’s flawless record, suggesting Mielnicki has faced tougher competition or adversity.
• No previous head-to-head encounters between Mielnicki Jr. and Gardzielik have occurred, making this fight a fresh matchup without psychological edges from past results.
• No reported injuries or health concerns for either fighter have been noted ahead of the bout, suggesting both are in optimal physical condition for the fight.
• The fight is held in Newark, New Jersey, Mielnicki Jr.'s hometown, providing him with strong local support and potentially influencing crowd energy and morale. The bout is promoted by Top Rank and will be streamed live on ESPN+, ensuring significant visibility. Betting odds favor Mielnicki Jr. heavily, indicating bookmakers view him as the clear favorite.
• Mielnicki Jr. seeks to solidify his status as a top middleweight contender on home turf, while Gardzielik aims to maintain his unbeaten record and earn recognition on the U.S. boxing stage. Both fighters are motivated by the vacant titles on the line and the career advancement the win would bring.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Vito Mielnicki Jr: -2000, Kamil Gardzielik: 850	Vito Mielnicki Jr	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Vito Mielnicki Jr: -2.5 rounds, Kamil Gardzielik: +2.5 rounds	Vito Mielnicki Jr by more than 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 6.5 rounds: -115, Under 6.5 rounds: -115	Under 6.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Vito Mielnicki Jr -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 6.5 31%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Mielnicki Jr.'s experience, hometown advantage, and strong betting support, he is predicted to win by knockout or decision. Gardzielik’s undefeated record means he cannot be underestimated, but Mielnicki Jr.'s power and resilience likely give him the edge.

Predicted Score: Vito Mielnicki Jr wins by 7th round TKO