Match Analysis: Vincent del Guerra vs Sofiane Aïssaoui – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-26
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, Nantes, France
Game Overview
This middleweight MMA matchup pits veteran Vincent del Guerra (35, 32-22-1 record) against technically skilled Sofiane Aïssaoui (34, 11-6-0). Del Guerra has a greater volume of fights and experience but a negative win/loss ratio, while Aïssaoui shows a more balanced record and slightly longer reach.
Key Factors to Consider
- Del Guerra has more fights but has lost significantly more; he tends to win by KO/TKO and submissions evenly. Aïssaoui has fewer fights but maintains a positive record with a strong submission game and decent knockout power. Recent form suggests both fighters remain active but no clear winning streak favors either.
- No documented direct prior matchups or results exist between del Guerra and Aïssaoui.
- No publicly available reports of injuries or weight-cutting issues for either fighter; both made weight successfully at the latest weigh-ins.
- The bout takes place at PFL Europe 3 in Nantes, France, effectively a home advantage for French fighter del Guerra. The venue and event are high profile with live broadcast.
- Del Guerra likely motivated to prove himself due to a losing record and home crowd. Aïssaoui, with a positive record and skill set, is motivated to establish dominance and capitalize on underdog status given the odds.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -390, away: +310 | Vincent del Guerra | ★★★★☆ 71% |
| Spread | home_spread_minus_1.5: -120, away_spread_plus_1.5: -110 | Vincent del Guerra -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over_2.5_rounds: -108, under_2.5_rounds: -112 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vincent del Guerra -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Vincent del Guerra at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vincent del Guerra to win by moneyline given experience, home advantage, and current bookmaker support.
Predicted Score: Vincent del Guerra wins by KO/TKO in Round 2