Match Analysis: Vincent del Guerra vs Sofiane Aïssaoui – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-26
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Zenith Nantes Metropole, Nantes, France
Game Overview
This middleweight MMA fight between Vincent del Guerra and Sofiane Aïssaoui at the PFL Europe 3 event is set to take place at the Zenith Nantes Metropole. Both fighters are well-experienced with contrasting records and fighting styles, making this a competitive matchup in the 185 lbs weight class.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vincent del Guerra enters the fight with a very strong record of 32 wins, 22 losses, and 1 draw, exhibiting diverse methods of victory including 4 KOs, 4 submissions, and 2 decision wins. Sofiane Aïssaoui has a record of 11 wins and 6 losses with a higher submission count (6 submissions) and fewer total fights, suggesting less experience but significant skill in grappling.
- There is no record of a prior head-to-head bout between Vincent del Guerra and Sofiane Aïssaoui, making this matchup unpredictable based on direct encounters.
- No recent injury reports have been noted for either fighter ahead of the fight, suggesting both are in good physical condition for the bout.
- The fight is part of a major PFL Europe event, streamed live on DAZN in France, the UK, and Ireland, supporting a high-stakes competitive environment. The venue in Nantes offers a localized advantage for Vincent del Guerra, who is from France, potentially boosting his motivation and fan support.
- Vincent del Guerra at age 35 and competing in his home country likely has a strong drive to maintain his high-level reputation. Sofiane Aïssaoui, at 34, also carries the motivation of furthering his career in the PFL Europe circuit, though he may be slightly the underdog given the odds and experience gap.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vincent del Guerra: -390, Sofiane Aïssaoui: 310 | Vincent del Guerra | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Vincent del Guerra: -1.5 rounds favored, Sofiane Aïssaoui: +1.5 rounds underdog | Vincent del Guerra to win by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: +150, Under 2.5 rounds: -190 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vincent del Guerra -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Vincent del Guerra at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Considering del Guerra’s superior experience, stronger winning record, and home advantage, he is favored to win this matchup, although Aïssaoui's grappling skills could present challenges leading to a competitive bout.
Predicted Score: Vincent del Guerra by unanimous decision or late stoppage in round 3