Match Analysis: Katsuma Akitsugi vs Vincent Astrolabio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: RP Funding Center, Lakeland, Florida, United States
Game Overview
The boxing match between undefeated Japanese fighter Katsuma Akitsugi and former world title contender Vincent Astrolabio is a bantamweight clash scheduled for November 7, 2025, at the RP Funding Center in Lakeland. Akitsugi, with a perfect pro record, faces Astrolabio, who has world-level experience but suffered recent high-profile losses. Astrolabio is returning to US soil after two years, aiming to bounce back while Akitsugi looks to continue his unbeaten run.
Key Factors to Consider
- Akitsugi is undefeated (13-0, 3 KOs) since turning pro in 2018, showing impressive consistency and the ability to finish opponents, with recent wins over Jonas Sultan and Aston Palicte. Astrolabio (20-5, 15 KOs) has more experience but recently lost world title fights by decision and knockout. His resilience is proven by a first-round KO comeback win in his last fight.
- No prior head-to-head fights between Akitsugi and Astrolabio.
- No reported injuries for either Akitsugi or Astrolabio ahead of the fight.
- The fight takes place in the US, where Akitsugi is US-based and may have a slight home advantage. Astrolabio also fought in the US before but has not been there for two years. The fight will be broadcast on ProBox TV in the US and UK, adding pressure for exposure.
- Akitsugi is motivated to maintain his undefeated streak and build his world ranking with a win over a former title contender. Astrolabio is motivated to prove he remains a top contender after recent title losses and to establish himself again on US soil.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Katsuma Akitsugi: -450, Vincent Astrolabio: 320 | Katsuma Akitsugi to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Akitsugi -1.5 rounds: -110, Astrolabio +1.5 rounds: -110 | Akitsugi to win by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 rounds: -105, Under 8.5 rounds: -115 | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Katsuma Akitsugi -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Katsuma Akitsugi at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Katsuma Akitsugi is favored to win by decision or late-round stoppage due to his unbeaten momentum and technical skill, though Astrolabio's power and experience could trouble him. The fight is expected to be competitive, with Akitsugi's youth and form giving him an edge.
Predicted Score: Akitsugi wins by unanimous decision or TKO around round 9