Match Analysis: AS Roma vs Viktoria Plzeň – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 10/23/2025
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Game Overview
AS Roma, a Serie A heavyweight, hosts Czech side Viktoria Plzeň in what shapes up as a clash between Roma’s superior technical quality and Plzeň’s robust defensive and counterattacking approach. Roma are clear favorites, but Plzeň arrives with confidence after a strong start in the competition and will look to frustrate and hit on the break.
Key Factors to Consider
- Roma are 1-0-1 (3 points, 0 GD) in Europa, mixing wins with close losses. Plzeň are 1-1-0 (4 points, +3 GD), showcasing resilience and efficiency. Roma’s domestic form is stronger, but both sides have been compact defensively so far in Europe[3][8].
- No recent head-to-head meetings between the clubs. Roma’s pedigree and squad depth are superior, while Plzeň are experienced in European competition and will aim to exploit tactical discipline[8].
- No major injury updates from top-tier sources, which is typical midweek. Current analysis assumes both teams are near full strength, but it is critical to check lineup sheets for late-breaking news.
- Roma plays at home in front of a passionate crowd, an advantage but also potential pressure if the game is tight. Plzeň thrives on road organization and counterattacking schemes.
- Roma needs a win to keep pace in a tough group. Plzeň is already ahead in the standings but knows a result in Rome would be a major step toward knockout qualification. Both teams are highly motivated[8].
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | AS Roma -280, Viktoria Plzeň +650, Draw +415 | AS Roma | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Spread | AS Roma -1.5 (-102), Viktoria Plzeň +1.5 (-128) | Viktoria Plzeň +1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over 3 (-118), Under 3 (-112) | Under 3 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | AS Roma -19% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 3 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a low-scoring, tense affair with Roma likely grinding out a narrow victory, though Plzeň’s compactness reduces the margin for error. The value in this match is on the Under and the Roma win, but the spread is too wide to confidently back.
Predicted Score: AS Roma 1-0 Viktoria Plzeň