Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 11:05 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Game Overview

The lightweight clash between Viacheslav Borshchev and Matheus Camilo at UFC 322 features Camilo as a slight favorite (-162 moneyline) over Borshchev (+136). Camilo enters motivated after a disappointing recent performance where he appeared to underperform, yet he brings solid submission skills against Borshchev who has shown vulnerabilities on the ground. The fight is expected to be competitive with Camilo's grappling edge and youth likely tipping the balance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Camilo holds a 9-3 record with a submission skillset highlighted by a Kamora win and a strong grappling defense. Borshchev is 8-6-1 overall with a UFC record of 3-5-1, showing inconsistency and struggles to close fights in the UFC.
• No previous H2H meetings between the fighters.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Late addition to UFC 322 prelims, Camilo replacing a withdrawn opponent recently, indicating good conditioning and readiness despite short notice.
• Camilo appears motivated to rebound strongly after a disappointing last fight where he seemed to give up early, while Borshchev has had mixed UFC success, likely under pressure to prove himself.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Camilo -162, Borshchev +136	Camilo	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Camilo -3.5 -105, Borshchev +3.5 -125	Camilo -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 +130, Under 2.5 -166	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo to win by submission

Predicted Score: Camilo wins via 2nd round submission

Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Terrance Mckinney – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-28
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This UFC 317 lightweight bout features Terrance McKinney, a highly aggressive and athletic fighter known for early finishes, versus Viacheslav Borshchev, a crafty striker with defensive wrestling weaknesses. McKinney's style revolves around quick and violent starts aiming for a fast finish, while Borshchev tends to rely on striking counterattacks but struggles defensively against pressure. The match is expected to be action-packed and could end quickly if McKinney achieves an early submission or knockout.

Key Factors to Consider

• McKinney holds a UFC record of 6-4 with notable fast finishes early in fights, whereas Borshchev has a UFC record of 3-4-1 and tends to have difficulties maintaining defense against aggressive opponents. McKinney lands slightly more significant strikes per minute (5.91 vs. 5.25) with higher accuracy (56% vs. 54%) and absorbs fewer strikes per minute (2.59 vs. 4.77). Borshchev has better strike defense (57% vs. 47%), but overall McKinney's offense and durability metrics favor him.
• They have no previous direct encounters in UFC or other major MMA promotions, making this a first-time matchup. The striking and wrestling styles suggest a McKinney advantage in pace and finishing ability.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both will enter in typical physical condition.
• The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, a neutral venue but one where McKinney has fought multiple times. The atmosphere and event magnitude could motivate both fighters. McKinney's recent social media activity shows strong confidence and readiness.
• McKinney aims to reassert himself with an emphatic win and maintain momentum in UFC lightweight rankings. Borshchev looks to prove his striking skills and overcome defensive vulnerabilities to gain UFC credibility.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Terrance McKinney: -170, Viacheslav Borshchev: 142	Terrance McKinney	★★★★☆ 82%
Spread	Terrance McKinney -3.5: -165, Viacheslav Borshchev +3.5: 120	Terrance McKinney -3.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: 170, Under 1.5 rounds: -220	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Viacheslav Borshchev -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Terrance McKinney is predicted to win, likely by first-round submission or TKO, due to his athleticism, aggressive early fight style, and superior striking stats. However, if the fight extends past the first round, Borshchev could exploit defensive lapses. Overall, McKinney's probability of an early finish is the key deciding factor.

Predicted Score: Fight ends in Round 1 via submission or TKO in favor of Terrance McKinney