Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 11:05 PM UTC
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Game Overview
UFC 322 Early Prelims Lightweight Division matchup featuring Viacheslav Borshchev (8-6-1 UFC record) facing Matheus Camilo (9-3 professional record, 0-1 UFC record). This is a late-addition fight to the UFC 322 card, with Camilo stepping in on short notice after his originally scheduled opponent Abdul Karim Alawadi had to withdraw. Camilo, the betting favorite, will look to bounce back from a disappointing UFC debut loss against Gabe Green. Borshchev, despite a losing UFC record, enters as a grappling specialist with submission capabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Matheus Camilo enters as the betting favorite with moneyline odds of -162, indicating bookmaker confidence in his abilities despite his recent UFC loss. His professional record of 9-3 shows he has competed at a high level, and analysts highlight his grappling and submission skills including kamura and triangle armbar submissions. Viacheslav Borshchev carries a 3-5-1 UFC record but has demonstrated grappling prowess, particularly in takedown defense and submission capability. Camilo's last performance against Gabe Green was criticized as lackluster, suggesting potential motivation issues or stylistic challenges.
- No prior head-to-head history exists between these fighters. This is their first scheduled matchup. Camilo was originally scheduled to face Abdul Karim Alawadi before the opponent withdrawal led to this matchup three weeks later.
- No known injuries or medical concerns reported for either fighter as of the current date. Camilo's quick turnaround from his previous fight against Gabe Green (approximately 3 weeks prior) warrants consideration regarding physical conditioning and recovery, though no official injury reports exist.
- This is an early prelims fight on the UFC 322 main card, which features the main event between Jack Della Maddalena and Islam Makhachev for the welterweight title. The early prelims time slot (11:05 PM UTC) may affect viewership but provides both fighters with adequate rest and recovery time. Camilo's short-notice replacement scenario and the three-week turnaround from his previous bout represent potential preparation concerns.
- Camilo faces significant motivation to recover from his disappointing UFC debut loss and prove his worth in the organization after a lackluster performance against Gabe Green. Borshchev, with a losing UFC record of 3-5-1, faces career pressure to secure wins. However, Camilo's status as a late replacement and the compressed timeline may indicate either high confidence or desperation, depending on context. The early prelims positioning suggests lower stakes compared to main card fights.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Camilo -162 / Borshchev +136 | Matheus Camilo wins | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Camilo -3.5 (-105) / Borshchev +3.5 (-125) | Camilo wins decisively within 3.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (130) / Under 2.5 (-166) | Under 2.5 rounds (fight ends before round 3) | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matheus Camilo 13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Matheus Camilo at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Matheus Camilo is predicted to win this matchup via submission in the second round. Analysts emphasize that Camilo's grappling and submission specialists advantage represents a significant skill gap, particularly exploiting what is described as 'a glaring hole' in Borshchev's submission defense game. While Borshchev demonstrates solid grappling fundamentals and takedown defense (as shown in his performance against Dabshak Navatov), Camilo's recent triangle armbar development and kamura victories provide specific technical advantages. However, Camilo's recent poor performance against Gabe Green introduces uncertainty regarding his mental state and consistency, preventing maximum confidence in this prediction.
Predicted Score: Matheus Camilo via submission (triangle armbar or similar grappling technique) at 3:15 of Round 2